Landon Donovan Reveals Key Tiebreaker That Could Determine Team USA’s Fate

USA v Paraguay: Group D - FIFA World Cup 2026
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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 12: Landon Donovan commentates before the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between USA and Paraguay at Los Angeles Stadium on June 12, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Team USA is riding high following their 4-1 opening win over Paraguay.

The United States opened up their 2026 World Cup run with a dominant showing against Paraguay, racing out to a 3-0 halftime lead before finishing things off with a 4-1 win over their Group D rival. While the win itself wasn’t surprising, the manner in which they did it in was, considering Team USA notched their first multi-goal win in a World Cup game in 24 years.

That also happened to be the year that Donovan made his World Cup debut and helped lead Team USA to its deepest finish in the World Cup with a quarterfinals appearance.

Prior to their World Cup opener, Donovan revealed what may determine Team USA’s fate in their Group D schedule. Team USA is seen as the favorites with Turkey as their biggest threat and Australia and Paraguay as distant threats.

“It’s going to be them or Turkey,” said Donovan in a one-on-one interview with Heavy Sports on who is going to win the group. “I think people kind of see Turkey and they’re like, ‘Ah, they’re a very good team, they’ve got a world class player in (Arda) Guler who plays for Real Madrid, and so they’re going to be a good team.’ I expect both teams to beat Australia and Paraguay, and then I expect it to come down to that final game. Goal differential could play importantly, because I can very much see a scenario where both teams beat Australia and Paraguay, and they end up tying in the third game.

“Turkey and US at that point, whoever has the better goal differential would advance,” Donovan continued to say. “So pay attention to that. In my World Cup experience, one goal changes everything for the whole group, from either from your game or another game — it can change. In 2010 it was the difference between us finishing first and going out of the group, right? And so every goal is really, really magnified in a tournament like this.”

Team USA off To Great Start Based Upon 4-1 Win Over Paraguay

Based upon Donovan’s assessment, Team USA is off to a great start. Their plus-three goal differential already gives them a likely leg up on Turkey, who will play Australia in their opener this weekend.

If Team USA ends up winning their group, they will end facing an easier path in the next round as they’ll match up against a runner-up rather than a first-place team.

Shaq Moore on Importance of Team USA Making Deep Run in World Cup

Shaq Moore isn’t a part of this roster, but he was a part of the 2022 Team USA World Cup roster. Moore is very familiar with this current team considering half of the team — including Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Sergino Dest — was on that squad also.

Team USA is hosting the World Cup for the first time since 1994 and it led to the creation of the MLS in 1996. Moore recognizes how important a deep run by Team USA this time around could mean for the popularity of soccer moving forward.

“Yeah, I think it’d be great, man,” said Moore. “The deep run would definitely bring the country together, put more eyes on soccer that’s already a growing sport in the country. I think the further we get, always the better. I think the US fans especially, we tend to gravitate more towards the game during the World Cup. So the further we can go when all the eyes are on us is always going to be better, so hopefully we can inspire the next generation of players like in ’94. So if we can go as far as we can, that will always be great for the country and kids growing up.”

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Landon Donovan Reveals Key Tiebreaker That Could Determine Team USA’s Fate

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