The United States Men’s National Team needs to win one match in the knockout rounds to equal its top performance ever in a World Cup, with two victories taking them to the quarterfinals and making soccer history for the country in the process.
And the good news for the USMNT? The oddsmakers see them as even money to do so.
“USA is currently +105 on @fdsportsbook to reach the quarterfinal (which would mean beating Bosnia & Herzegovina, then most likely Belgium in the round of 16,” Kay Adams of the “Up & Adams” show posted to X on Saturday, June 27. “🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 are we in?!”
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 are we in?! @UpAndAdamsShow
Based on DraftKings Sportsbook’s projections as of Sunday morning, the U.S. is now +100 to advance to the quarterfinals, which in betting parlance indicates a coin flip — otherwise known as a 50-50 chance.
Also as of Sunday morning, the USMNT is a massive favorite (-650) to best Bosnia and Herzegovina (+450) in San Francisco on Wednesday, July 1, per DraftKings.
Meanwhile, Belgium (-175) is a moderate favorite to win over Senegal (+140). The victor of that match will square off against the United States in the Round of 16.
USMNT Has Never Won 2 Knockout Round Games in Modern World Cup
GettyChristian Pulisic of the USMNT.
The 2026 World Cup is the first time that the knockout stages include 32 teams.
The last, and only time, the USMNT advanced to the knockout stages in the modern era of the event came in 2002. The U.S. finished in second place in its group and moved onto the first knockout round, which included 16 countries at the time.
The United States bested Mexico to move onto the quarterfinals in that tournament before exiting the via a loss to Germany by a score of 1-0.
Technically, two victories in the knockout rounds this year would equal the farthest the USMNT has ever traveled in the World Cup — save for the inaugural event in Uraguay in 1930, in which only 13 countries participated and the U.S. finished third. However, two knockout-round match victories would surpass anything the United States has ever accomplished in global soccer.
That is what is on the line for the country in early July, and the gambling experts are currently indicating it is a toss-up that the U.S. will achieve it.
USA Will Likely Face Global Titans if Team Advances to Quarterfinals, Beyond
GettyLionel Messi of Argentina.
Advancing beyond the quarterfinals will almost certainly be a Herculean task, as the odds-on favorite to meet the USMNT in the Round of 8 is Spain — and the path will only get more difficult from there.
Should the U.S. advance to the semifinals, the most likely outcome is a matchup with France, which finished second place in the World Cup four years ago and won it in 2018.
If the United States makes it all the way to the final, its most likely opponent will be defending champion Argentina and the incomparable Lionel Messi.
None of those matchups are guaranteed, of course. However, based on world rankings and the way the bracket is set up, that is the most likely path for the USMNT to a World Cup title.
Odds Point to USMNT Making History in World Cup Knockout Rounds