The United States open the 2026 World Cup as Group D favorites, drawing Paraguay on June 12 with a knockout-round berth squarely in reach.
Home advantage and a balanced bracket tilt the math toward Mauricio Pochettino’s side, yet Turkiye’s young attack and Paraguay’s stubborn defense leave the order of finish anything but settled.
The group runs from June 12 to 25, and the Americans play two of their three matches in Los Angeles, opening against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium before a Seattle date with Australia and then back to Los Angeles to face Turkiye, according to the schedule published by MLSSoccer.com. The top two advance automatically, and a third-place finisher can still slip through under the expanded 48-team format.
GettyUnited States forward Christian Pulisic leads the Americans into the World Cup.
United States Lean on Christian Pulisic
Pochettino arrives at his first World Cup as a head coach with the deepest squad in the group and, two times out of three, the loudest building.
The Opta supercomputer pegs the Americans at 77% to reach the knockout round and 32.4% to win Group D outright, according to projections from Opta Analyst‘s Dan Edwards. Pochettino named his 26 in May, 13 of them holdovers from the side that reached the round of 16 in 2022, per the roster detailed by ESPN‘s Jeff Carlisle.
Christian Pulisic remains the engine. The AC Milan forward had a hand in all three U.S. goals at the last World Cup, one strike and two assists, according to Opta Analyst.
One question hovers over the back line.
“We don’t know. We’ll see tomorrow if he plays, and then we will decide,” Pochettino said of center back Chris Richards during the roster reveal, according to a CBS Sports report. Richards, a Premier League regular at Crystal Palace, had been managing an ankle problem, and his fitness shapes how Pochettino sets the defense.
GettyKenan Yildiz continues to pace the Turkiye team.
Turkiye Ride Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz
Turkiye sit just behind the hosts at 73% to advance, per Opta Analyst, and they may carry the group’s most varied scoring threat.
This is only the country’s third World Cup, after 1954 and a third-place finish in 2002, and they reach North America ranked 22nd in the world, according to Flashscore. Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Inter’s Hakan Calhanoglu both shook off earlier injuries to take their places in Vincenzo Montella’s squad.
The bigger headache for opponents may be Kenan Yildiz. The Juventus winger stacked up 11 goals and nine assists across 47 appearances in 2025-26, according to Opta Analyst.
GettyCoach of Paraguay Gustavo Alfaro faces an uphill battle in Group D.
Paraguay Trust a Stingy Defense and Antonio Sanabria
Paraguay return to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, their ninth appearance overall and a reminder of how long the wait has been.
Gustavo Alfaro built the Paraguay side around defense. Paraguay have not conceded more than one goal in any of their last 10 World Cup matches, and they posted the lowest possession share, 37.3%, among the six CONMEBOL qualifiers.
They also hit the woodwork more than anyone in qualifying, 10 times, a stat that hints at the fine margins waiting in June. When Alfaro needs a goal, he tends to summon Antonio Sanabria, who scored three of his four qualifying goals off the bench.
GettyGoalkeeper Mathew Ryan captains Australia’s Socceroos.
Australia Bank on Set Pieces and Mathew Ryan
Australia are the group’s outsider and its most seasoned traveler, booking a sixth straight trip to the World Cup.
The Socceroos have reached five consecutive tournaments and made the round of 16 as recently as 2022, according to the Group D preview from Yahoo Sports. They sit 27th in the FIFA rankings, according to Flashscore.
Tony Popovic’s team leans on dead-ball situations, and every one of Craig Goodwin’s five qualifying assists came from a set piece. Captain and goalkeeper Mathew Ryan anchors the back, fresh off a nine-clean-sheet season at Levante and his fourth consecutive World Cup.
Four teams, three weeks, and not much to separate them. Group D ranks among the tournament’s most unpredictable group-stage competitions, and the United States begin it as the team to catch.
FIFA World Cup Group D Prediction: Supercomputer Rates United States Chances