UFC 104 Predictions

Machida vs Shogun – Some people are actually torn about this one. And I can’t see why. Machida hasn’t lost a round let alone a fight in his career and Shogun hasn’t looked that great in his last few fights. I know, I know. He just knocked out Chuck Liddell, so he has that going for him. But before that, Forrest Griffin submitted him and he put on a lengthy fight against Mark Coleman. I don’t see Shogun being able to pull this one off: Lyoto Machida, Round 3, KO

Velasquez vs Rothwell – Heavyweight fights are so difficult to predict but there’s one aspect that I think will make a big difference in this fight: Rothwell doesn’t have much experience in the cage, which puts him at a disadvantage. However, the fact that Velasquez is looking for a great finish may leave him vulnerable, but I believe Rothwell’s lack of UFC experience will be his downfall: Cain Velasquez, Round 3, TKO

Tibau vs Neer – Gleison Tibau seems to fall victim to good boxers and fortunately for him, Josh Neer hasn’t really shown a particular strength in his hands. Neer also seems to find himself on the ground where there won’t be any mercy from Tibau. Tibau, Round 3, Submission

Stevenson vs Fisher – Joe Stevenson has great hands and a ridiculous guillotine choke, which we saw in his fight against aforementioned Gleison Tibau. Spenser Fisher is coming off a win streak but most of his fights go late into the third round. With time like that, I see Fisher getting worn down by Stevenson’s standup until it ends on the ground. Stevenson, Round 2, Submission

Johnson vs Yoshida – This is the classic case of a grappler against a kickboxer. Yoshiyuki Yoshida really impressed everyone with his submission of Brandon Wolff at UFC 98. But Johnson’s knockouts happen suddenly and early in the fight. Johnson, Round 1, KO

Hardonk vs Barry – Hardonk’s leg kicks are insane. But he didn’t get a chance to use them during his last fight against Cheick Kongo. Pat Barry is younger and fresher, but smaller. Barry also has won all of his fights by knockout. If Hardonk can channel his former self and bring back some of those leg kicks combined with some striking, he should be able to take this fight no problem. Hardonk, Round 2, TKO

Bader vs Schafer – Although Bader earned “Submission of the Night” at Fight Night 19, I don’t think he’ll be getting it again at 104 due to Schafer’s ground game (majority of wins by submission). If Bader keeps this fight standing, he has a decent chance at a knockout, but I think Schafer will put up a decent fight on his feet. Bader, Round 3, Decision