Pennsylvania General Election Polls: Trump & Clinton in Tight Race

Pennsylvania Trump supporters gather to see the Republican presidential candidate. (Getty)

POLITICO ranks Pennsylvania as one of the 11 states most likely to determine the 2016 election. The state, which carries 20 electoral votes, has tended to go Democrat in recent years, though not by extraordinarily high margins. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania by five points.

As of June 2016, Trump and Clinton are in a neck and neck race in the state, with most polls showing them either tied or with a 1 point difference. Here are all of the current Pennsyvalia general election polls via Real Clear Politics.

Public Policy Polling

Public Policy Polling conducted this poll from June 3rd to June 5th by polling 1,106 registered Pennsylvania voters. The margin of error was 3.0 percentage points.

The group noted, though, that it appears the state is so close because the Democratic party has not yet completely gotten behind Hillary Clinton as their nominee. The poll found that Republicans are far more unified around Trump than Democrats are around Clinton.

In a head-to-head match up, Bernie Sanders beat Donald Trump 45% to 36%. And a generic Democratic candidate also beat a generic Republican candidate 45% to 41%.

Quinnipiac

Quinnipiac’s poll was conducted from April 27th through May 8th by speaking with 1,077 registered voters. The margin of error was 3.0 percentage points.

Bernie Sanders once again performed better against Trump, beating him 47% to 41%. The poll also found a large gender gap, with Hillary Clinton maintaining a 19-point lead among women and Trump having a 21-point lead among men.

Quinnipiac noted that Trump’s Pennsylvania polling at this juncture is actually better than John McCain’s in 2008 and Mitt Romney’s in 2012 during this same period of time.

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist

The NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll was conducted from April 18th through April 20th by speaking with 2,606 registered voters. The margin of error was 1.9 percentage points.

This was the only general election poll in Pennsylvania in which Hillary Clinton was ahead by more than one point. In a hypothetical matchup of Hillary Clinton and John Kasich, though, Kasich beat Clinton 48% to 45%.

Bernie Sanders also was ahead of Trump by an even larger margin than Clinton, beating him 57% to 47%. A matchup between Sanders and Kasich was a bit tighter, with Sanders winning 50% to 44%.

Fox News

Fox News’ poll was conducted from April 4th to April 7th by speaking with 1,607 registered voters. The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points.

When asked how they would react if the two nominees were Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, 22% of those polled said they would seriously consider voting for a third party candidate, and 6% said they would not vote.