The Indiana Senate race between Democrat Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun has not gotten the same amount of coverage as other key races in states like Florida and Missouri but the race is key to Democrats’ hopes of winning control of the Senate and Republican hopes of preserving their own majority. The first Indiana polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern while the rest of the state votes until 7 p.m.
Donnelly’s seat was one of the Republicans’ early targets for a pickup this cycle after President Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 20 percent in the 2016 presidential race. The moderate Democrat spent much of his campaign embracing some of the rhetoric of the right to preserve his seat and the gambit appears to have worked with polls giving him a strong shot at a second term.
FiveThirtyEight’s projection gives Donnelly better than a 70 percent chance of winning on Tuesday despite ranking Indiana as 17.9 percent more Republican than the country as a whole. Their model ranks Indiana as the 15th-most Republican state in the United States.
Harris Interactive, which has provided regular tracking polling every several days since the last week of October, has shown the race swinging to Donnelly. After showing Braun leading by 2 points to end October, the poll shows Donnelly ahead by 2 percent.
A Fox News poll released in late October gave Donnelly a much better chance of winning, showing him up by a margin of 45-38.
Here is the latest data in the Donnely-Braun matchup:
Real Clear Politics Average: Donnelly vs. Braun
RealClearPolitics, which keeps a running average of the latest polls, shows Donnelly with a very slight lead over Braun.
Fox News: Donnelly vs. Braun
The Fox News poll was conducted between October 27-30, sampling 722 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.5 points.
NBC News/Marist College: Donnelly vs. Braun
The NBC News/Marist poll was conducted October 24-28, sampling 496 likely voters with a margin of error of 5.5 percent.
Cygnal: Donnelly vs. Braun
The Cygnal poll was conducted October 26-27, sampling 505 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.36 percent.
CBS News/YouGov: Donnelly vs. Braun
The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted October 23-26, sampling 975 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percent.
Indy Politics/Mason Strategies: Donnelly vs. Braun
The IndyPolitics/Mason Strategies poll was conducted October 15-20, sampling 600 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
SurveyUSA: Donnelly vs. Braun
The SurveyUSA poll was conducted October 12-16, sampling 816 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.6 percent.
Gravis: Donnelly vs. Braun
The Gravis poll was conducted October 12-16, sampling 377 likely voters with a margin of error of 5.1 percent.