Editor’s note: The odds below are courtesy of Heavy’s partners at OddsShark. Click here for more NFL odds and betting info at OddsShark.com.
Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are heavy favorites in the latest stop on the Gronk You tour, an AFC title game rematch against the Indianapolis Colts that stacks up as a tough Sunday Night Football betting matchup.
The undefeated Patriots are listed as 10.5-point favorites against the Colts at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Indianapolis started the Deflategate soap opera with allegations about Brady and the Patriots using improperly inflated footballs during their 45-7 win in the AFC Championship Game in January.
That win ran the Patriots’ record to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Colts.
The large spread creates a tall task for the Patriots to post an ATS win. During the Brady/Belichick era, New England is 7-1 SU and 3-5 ATS as a double-digit favorite on the road. Similarly, since mid-2007 it is 10-0 SU and 4-6 ATS in road games where it was more than a touchdown favorite according to the OddsShark NFL Database.
On the season New England is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS entering Week 6, with Brady having fashioned the highest QB rating in the NFL thanks in part to a pristine 11-to-0 touchdown/interception ratio.
Brady’s bevy of receivers such as mismatch-causing TE Rob Gronkowski, dual-threat RB Dion Lewis and WR Julian Edelman, Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola are facing the Colts’ 25th-ranked pass defense. The Colts have been average at covering tight ends and running backs, but struggle to contain No. 1 wideouts and slot receivers.
The Patriots’ offensive line is thriving at opening holes for Lewis and physical RB LeGarrette Blount.
The Colts, who are 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS, should get QB Andrew Luck back after a two-game absence with an ailing shoulder. Indianapolis is struggling to run effectively, which might limit its chance of success against a soft Patriots run defense.
Luck and his receivers such as WR T.Y. Hilton and WR Andre Johnson will be facing a highly-ranked pass defense. Much of New England’s pass defense success is predicated on pressure up front, and the Colts are coming off an impressive effort in containing Houston DE J.J. Watt in a Week 5 win.
Indianapolis is 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home underdog.
The total for Sunday night’s New England vs. Indianapolis betting matchup is set at 54.5 points at the sportsbooks. The total has gone OVER in six of the teams’ last seven matchups.
The OddsShark Computer is projecting a 24.3-22.1 Patriots victory, indicating this game might be closer than many would expect.
Patriots vs. Colts pick: Patriots SU, Colts ATS