For much of the second half of the NFL regular season, many pundits believed that the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers were the two clear favorites in the AFC. Maybe that's because each squad decided to stop losing games about two months ago. In fact, since they both lost back on November 13, the Steelers have reeled off nine consecutive victories, while the Pats have won eight straight. With a spot in Super Bowl 51 on the line, though, one of those streaks will come to an end in Foxboro on Sunday night. Will the Pats make it two Super Bowl trips in three years? Or will the Steelers return to the promised land for the first time since the 2010 season? You can click through the gallery for an in-depth breakdown and bold predictions for the outcome of the AFC Championship, and you can read here for more NFL championship weekend analysis and picks. (Getty)
Pats Hold Le'Veon Bell Under 100 Rushing Yards
A special talent, Bell has run for 100-plus yards in seven of the last eight games, averaging an absurd 146.5 rushing yards per contest during that stretch. His unique patience and explosiveness has made him nearly impossible to contain, but Bill Belichick is a master game-planner and tends to do a good job of limiting an opposing team's most dangerous player. Moreover, the Pats are very stout against the run. They are 10th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, rank fourth in Football Outsiders' run defense efficiency ratings and haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. It's ultimately a compelling matchup of strength vs. strength, but Pittsburgh has enough other ways to move the ball that Bell will have a quiet game on the ground. (Getty)
Ben Roethlisberger Throws For More Than 300 Yards
As we already alluded to, this sets up as a game for the Steelers to lean on the pass. First, they're 5.5-point underdogs, and in four such games over the last four seasons, they've averaged 42.5 pass attempts and 320.75 passing yards vs. 36.9 and 286.47 in all other contests. Second, while the Pats are fourth in Football Outsiders' run defense rankings, they are just 23rd against the pass. And third, the Patriots allowed the third most targets and second most receptions to running backs this season, including 13 and 10 to Le'Veon Bell, who is arguably the best pass-catching back in the league. Big Ben has some ugly home/road splits this year, but expect him to throw a lot in this one. (Getty)
LeGarrette Blount Gets More Touches Than Dion Lewis
Last week against the Texans, Lewis finished with 33 offensive snaps, 15 touches and 20 opportunities (carries plus targets), compared to just 27, 8 and 8 for Blount. It would appear that the former has surpassed the latter on the depth chart, but that would be making the mistake of believing that Bill Belichick has an actual running back depth chart. It comes down more to matchup than anything else, and it wouldn't be a shock if the Pats get back to a heavy dose of Blount against a Steelers teams he gashed for 24 carries, 127 yards and two scores back in Week 7. Lewis will still be involved--he's too dynamic not to be--but Blount, who received 10-plus touches in every game until last week, will get back to his early-down role, as the Pats look to set the tone against a physical defense. (Getty)
Patriots Force a Pair of Turnovers
In their last five games on the road, the Steelers have committed just four turnovers (four interceptions, zero lost fumbles), with three of those coming in a snowy game at Buffalo. But while they do a great job of controlling the ball, the Pats have forced 12 takeaways in the last four games and 17 during their eight-game winning streak. Something has to give. Ultimately, if the game script goes according to (my) projection, Pittsburgh will be dropping back a lot, giving the Patriots ample opportunity to pressure Ben Roethlisberger and create a couple of mistakes. We'll say one interception and one strip-sack. (Getty)
Patriots Win, Steelers Cover
While both teams boast strong defenses, there is enough offensive firepower on both sides of the ball to counteract that. Ultimately, both squads move the ball up and down the field with relative ease, but the Patriots, who were third in the NFL in turnover differential during the season, make a couple of key takeaways to advance to the Super Bowl. Patriots 31, Steelers 28. (Getty)
Steelers vs. Patriots: Bold Predictions for AFC Championship Game 2017