For impartial fans--you know, for all 12 of you out there--you couldn't ask for a better Super Bowl LI matchup than the Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots. On one side of the ball, you have likely regular-season MVP Matt Ryan and one of the most potent offenses of all-time going up against the NFL's No. 1 scoring defense looking to prove itself after facing an easy schedule. On the other side, you have Tom Brady, aiming for a record fifth Super Bowl ring, against a young, speedy Falcons defense that appears to be getting better every game. There are alluring matchups all over the place, and if the over/under of 58 points is any indication, we're in store for an instant classic to end the season. You can click through the gallery for a further breakdown, bold predictions and a pick against the spread, and you can click here for more analysis. (Getty)
LeGarrette Blount Tops 100 Yards
How do you slow down Matt Ryan and the Falcons' relentlessly explosive offense? You keep them off the field. Though Tom Brady represents the Patriots' best offensive weapon, it wouldn't be surprising if Bill Belichick leaned on Blount and the running game to control time of possession then turned to Brady to move the chains when necessary. That's especially likely against a Falcons defense that ranks 19th against the pass but just 29th against the run, per Football Outsiders' defensive efficiency ratings. Finally, leaning on the run will help neutralize electric pass rusher Vic Beasley, who has been one of the Falcons' most dangerous defensive players. (Getty)
Mohamed Sanu Leads the Falcons in Receiving yards
Completely stopping Julio Jones isn't possible, but if there's someone who can at least slow him down, it's Bill Belichick, Matt Patricia and two weeks of preparation. The Pats sent bracket coverage towards Antonio Brown in the AFC Championship, holding him to 77 yards (38 of which came when the game was already decided) and zero touchdowns, they haven't allowed a 100-yard receiver since Quincy Enunwa in Week 12, and they're No. 1 focus on defense will likely be Jones. As for who will step up if Jones actually is contained, the oddsmakers see Taylor Gabriel (over/under set at 47.5 yards) and Sanu (45.5) as the two likeliest candidates. I'll go with Sanu not only because he plays more snaps, but also because the Patriots have done a good job this year at limiting big plays, which is where Gabriel makes his living. (Getty)
Devonta Freeman & Tevin Coleman Combine for 10 Catches
Running the ball against the Patriots is not an easy task, as they finished the season 10th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (3.9) and are fourth in Football Outsiders' run defense efficiency ratings. That said, there is room to do damage through the air against the Pats, who gave up the third-most targets, second-most receptions and third-most receptions to running backs. Over the last four games, Freeman and Coleman are averaging a combined 9.25 targets and 8.25 receptions, so catching 10 balls against this defense shouldn't be a stretch, especially if the Pats throw multiple defenders at Julio, leaving linebackers to cover these two. (Getty)
The Total Will Be Under 58
Maybe not the boldest prediction I've ever made, but with 58 percent of the bets coming in on the "over," I'll allow it. Most of the numbers point to this being a high-scoring game. The Pats and Falcons can each score at alarmingly fast rates, and the Pats' No. 1 scoring defense may be overrated considering they've faced the NFL's easiest schedule for a defense, per Football Outsiders. Still, this is a Super Bowl. Only one of the last 12 Super Bowls has finished with more than 58 total points, while the last four Super Bowls with and over/under of at least 50 points has hit the "under". With a championship on the line, teams tend to play just a little tighter than usual, and I think that will ultimately make it tough for 58 to be reached. (Getty)
Patriots Win Their 5th Super Bowl
The Falcons have turned into the trendy pick, and really, it's easy to see either team walking away from NRG Stadium with the Lombardi Trophy. In what is ultimately expected to be a close game, though, I'll side with the team that has the head coach with six Super Bowl rings (four as a head coach) and the quarterback with four Super Bowl rings. That said, I like the Falcons to cover, as the Patriots' previous four Super Bowl wins have come by three, three, three and four points, with the latter coming down to one yard. Belichick, Brady and Co. know how to win Super Bowls, but their gameplans tend to produce close games. Patriots 27, Falcons 25. (Getty)
Patriots vs. Falcons: Bold Predictions for Super Bowl 51