For the past several weeks of my fantasy football start/sit predictions, I have done my best to calm worried fantasy owners whose team has not performed up to expectations. If your team is still underperforming heading into Week 4, it might be time to hit the gas pedal by shaking up your roster.
If you are 1-2 or 0-3, it is not a time to panic, but you would be wise to explore your waiver wire and trade options to improve your team. The other key to turning things around is making the correct lineup decisions. Hopefully, we are navigating the muddy fantasy waters together, and your team is off to a hot start. As we mentioned last week, a helpful exercise when you are setting your lineup is to target games where there should be a lot of scoring. This is also a solid strategy for those you that also play on DraftKings or FanDuel.
Based on the Vegas over-under numbers, here are a few games that are expected to be full of fantasy starts for Week 4. The Falcons host the Bengals, and Vegas is expecting over 50 points in the game. Falcons players are going to be must-starts more weeks than not based on their banged-up defense. Atlanta is going to try to outscore teams given the attrition their defense has suffered. This week, they face a Bengals defense that is giving up a lot of points.
As an aside, be sure to pick up Calvin Ridley if he is available on your waiver wire. These last two weeks are not a fluke, as he is one of the few rookie wide receivers that should be fantasy relevant for the whole season.
Target Games With High Vegas Point Totals
The Saints offense appears to be back to its old form. If you selected Drew Brees as your quarterback, you are a happy fantasy owner. The Saints-Giants game is another fantasy-friendly matchup. The two primetime games are also expected to be shootouts. The Steelers take on the Ravens on Sunday Night Football, and both offenses have started strong. Finally, Patrick Mahomes looks to finish his hot streak on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. It is not an ideal matchup against the Denver defense, but the Chiefs offense has been matchup proof through the first month of the season.
One word of wisdom, we are getting to a time in the fantasy season where it is okay to bench players you used an early draft pick on. If David Johnson is on your team, it is logical to bench him for a running back who is performing better this season. The same can be said for other "studs" who have performed more like duds so far in 2018. There is still time for these players to turn things around and can be inserted back into your lineup at that time.
Thanks to everyone who has been reaching out on Twitter with your fantasy questions. It is great interacting each week. As always, keep sending your questions my way @JonDAdams. We do our best to highlight the most stressful lineup decisions each week but are unable to get to every player. Twitter is a great way for us to discuss your particular team.
Click the next arrow to see my fantasy football predictions for Week 4 with the latest edition of Start/Sit.
Start: WR Calvin Ridley vs. Bengals
Sit: WR Amari Cooper vs. Browns
I realize our list has been heavy with Falcons players the last two weeks, but there is a reason for that. Atlanta is playing in their third straight home game, and the offense is finally starting to find a rhythm after early red zone struggles. The Falcons defense is depleted, which means the Falcons offense is going to continue to try to put up big numbers for the team to have a chance at winning. The Bengals defense has given up a good amount of yards and points this season.
After making zero catches in his NFL debut, Ridley has had 11 receptions for 210 yards and four touchdowns in Atlanta's last two games. While you are likely to be disappointed if you're expecting Ridley to score another three touchdowns this week, the Falcons receiver is going to be a WR2/WR3 the rest of the way as long as Matt Ryan continues spreading the ball around.
Ridley may have a little extra juice this week going against former Alabama player Dre Kirkpatrick. After his breakout Week 3 performance, Ryan spoke about how integral Ridley has become to the offense.
“He stepped up when he had the opportunity too,” Ryan said per AtlantaFalcons.com. “It was clear from the start the game plan would be having two guys to account for Julio and a safety coming down from the opposite side to account for where Mohamed was at. That leaves Calvin singled up in one-on-one coverage. I thought Sark did a great job of taking advantage of that ... calling plays to get him shots down the field. But at the end of the day, Calvin has to go out there and make those plays and he’s done that for us all season but today was special. I was proud of him.”
The Raiders Offense Is a Riddle, Wrapped in a Mystery, Inside an Enigma
If you can predict what the Raiders offense is going to do each week, you are doing better than most. Tight end Jared Cook had nine receptions and 180 receiving yards in Week 1.
Cooper had 10 receptions with 116 yards in Week 2 against the Broncos. Last week, he finished with just two receptions for 17 yards. Jordy Nelson was the player with the massive game in Week 3 for the Raiders. Nelson had six receptions and 173 yards along with a touchdown. Nelson previously only had 53 total yards in the first two games.
Sitting Cooper this week has less to do with him as it does the unpredictability of the Oakland offense. It is challenging to start any of the Raiders wide receivers with confidence right now. Cooper also has a difficult matchup against the Browns defense that has been surprisingly solid.
Leave Cooper on your bench, and after his next big game try to trade him. It is going to be a wild ride this season with the Raiders, and it is better to have players on your roster you can start with confidence each week. I'm recommending fantasy owners sit one Bama wide receiver for another if you have that opportunity.
Start: WR Kenny Golladay vs. Cowboys
Sit: WR Marquise Goodwin vs. Chargers
Golladay has had six or more receptions in all three games this season. This puts him in the WR2/WR3 range in PPR leagues. Golladay scored a touchdown in the last two games, while accumulating fantasy points with yardage in Week 1 with 114 yards.
According to Rotoworld, Galladay has been getting the start over Golden Tate when the Lions are in two-receiver sets. Nothing about the Cowboys defense should scare you from putting the Lions receiver in your lineup this week.
After a slow start, it appears as though the Lions offense is hitting its stride. Rookie running back Kerryon Johnson noted after the win over the Patriots that we are starting to see a different offense.
“I think we saw a different offense today and we won,” Johnson told The Detroit News. “I think it helped us a lot, opened a lot of our passes, it made life a lot easier for Stafford and our receivers and the O-line did a fantastic job. It takes a lot to get us there, it takes a lot to do that and pass-block and they did an awesome job.”
With the way the Lions offense looked against the Patriots, Golladay could emerge as a must-start going forward. Pro Football Talk's Darin Gantt explained why a balanced attack could help the passing game (and fantasy owners).
"Things are a little more balanced offensively for the Lions (33 runs, 36 pass attempts), and that actually seemed to make their quarterback more effective," Gantt noted. "There was no better example of that than in the third quarter, when they answered a Patriots touchdown drive with one of their own."
The 49ers Wide Receivers Take a Fantasy Hit Without Jimmy Garoppolo
The recommendation to sit Goodwin has more to do with the uncertainty surrounding the 49ers offense. All signs point to Jimmy Garoppolo missing the rest of the season which means all the 49ers receivers are "sits", at least in the short-term. With C.J. Bethard under center, it is hard to know what to expect going forward.
“All indications are that it’s torn,” 49ers GM John Lynch said per The Mercury News. “Our [medical] guys say they’ve been wrong before and so they need to do the MRI, obviously.”
Thanks to Kyle Shannahan's offensive mind, the 49ers players could have fantasy value down the road. As it stands now, things could worse before they get better in San Francisco.
Goodwin just returned from injury and scored a touchdown so it is admittedly a bit of an odd time to keep him on your bench. Even though he scored, Goodwin had just three receptions in the contest. It is hard to know how many targets he is going to get moving forward without Garoppolo.
If you have Goodwin on your roster, you're hoping he will emerge as the Niners WR1 with Bethard at quarterback. One name to keep an eye on is Pierre Garcon, who had a lot of receptions last year with Bethard at quarterback.
Start: Seahawks DST at Cardinals
Sit: Vikings DST at Rams
The Cardinals are averaging 6.7 points a game and have scored a total of 20 points this season. Things could get better with Josh Rosen as the new starting quarterback, but the offense is still likely to be a work in progress the rest of the season. Arizona is last in the NFL in points, rushing yards per game, passing yards per game and total yard per game. In other words, the Cardinals have, by far, the worst offense in the league.
Seattle's defense is far from the unit from the Legion of Boom days with Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. That said, the defense has held its own this season, and the DST is still fantasy relevant. The Seahawks DST is owned in just over seven percent of ESPN leagues heading into waivers. The number is likely to go up a bit, but it is still going to be available in most leagues. The Seahawks DST had 14 and 8 fantasy points over the last two weeks.
All signs point to the Seahawks being a top 10 DST this week as they take on a bad Arizona offense. If the Cardinals offense does not improve, streaming the opposing defense could end up being a solid strategy this season.
The Vikings Defense Has a Bad Matchup Against the Rams
In most cases, I am not a big fan of holding on to two defenses. We are labeling this a sit, but since it is a DST I am essentially telling you it is okay to drop the Vikings DST for another team. The Minnesota DST has scored five points or less in two of its three games. Minnesota just allowed the Bills and rookie quarterback Josh Allen to score 27 points.
I still think they can be a solid DST down the road, but the roster spot is more valuable. If you are concerned about losing them, you could always drop them right before kickoff of the Thursday night game. For most leagues, this prevents other owners from picking them up until next week's waivers run, giving you another chance to claim them back on your team.
Chances are the defense is going to prove it is not up to the same level we are used to seeing from the team. They face a Rams offense that is one of the best in the league as Los Angeles is averaging 34 points per game so far this season.
On a more serious note, the Vikings are likely to be without star defensive end Everson Griffen for the foreseeable future. All indications are Griffen is dealing with mental health challenges after a weekend of troubling behavior. ESPN reported Griffen is being evaluated at a local hospital and was previously banned from team activities until he underwent testing. The Vikings released a statement about Griffen, and it does not sound promising.
"We are aware of the situation involving Everson Griffen and certainly concerned by what we have heard. We are currently focused on Everson's well-being and providing the appropriate support for him and his family," the statement said per KARE 11.
The Vikings have a bad matchup against the Rams, and it is currently hard to trust their DST even in better matchups.
Start: RB Gio Bernard at Falcons
Sit: RB Corey Clement at Titans
The Falcons defense received more bad news as Atlanta has lost another member of the secondary with Ricardo Allen's torn Achilles. The Falcons cannot catch a break as their offense is clicking, but the defense has holes all over thanks to attrition. Gio Bernard is primed to have a great fantasy day against a banged-up Falcons defense.
As NFL Network's Kay Adams pointed out, pass-catching running backs have eaten the Falcons alive the past two weeks. Christian Mccaffrey had 14 receptions for the Panthers in Week 2, while Alvin Kamara had 15 receptions in last week's shootout. Bernard may not be able to duplicate the same production, but the Bengals running back is most effective in the passing game.
You will want to check Joe Mixon's status as Sunday approaches, but Mixon seems like a long-shot to play in Week 4 as of now. Even if Mixon plays, the Bengals are still likely to utilize Bernard in the passing game. The Bengals have been adamant about their belief in Bernard.
“He’s a warrior,” offensive coordinator Bill Lazor told Cincinnati.com. “Gio was underrated as a runner. For whatever reason people talk about all of the things he can do, because he can do so many things, but if you go back and watch his inside runs from last year -- now some of it was when we spread people out -- but he was pretty effective inside runner.”
With Mixon out in Week 3, Bernard received the majority of the carries finishing with 12 rushes for 61 yards and a touchdown. Bernard also had five receptions for 25 yards. Look for an even better outing in Week 4 with a plus matchup in Atlanta.
The Eagles Running Game Is a Mess Without Jay Ajayi
There are a lot of people that picked up Clement after Jay Ajayi suffered an injury. It seemed like a smart move, but the Eagles ended up splitting carries between Clement and Wendell Smallwood. Doug Pederson indicated Ajayi is scheduled to be back on the practice field this week, which means there is a good chance he'll be playing this weekend. Even if Ajayi sat out another week, none of the Eagles other backs are worth starting with the uncertainty of carries.
Clement rushed for 56 yards and averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. After the game, Pederson explained why he started Smallwood.
"Darren Sproles and Jay Ajayi weren't playing," Pederson told Philly.com. "No, Wendell has always impressed me. He's worked extremely hard. He's really improved his craft and put himself in a position to help us. … Got to have guys like that. Might be role players, but you know what, their role is pretty big in games like this, when your top two guys are down."
If you have Ajayi and he is active, you're putting him in your lineup. All the other Eagles running backs are heavy fades this week.
Start: TE Trey Burton vs. Bucs
Sit: TE Vance McDonald vs. Ravens
Burton had a solid outing in PPR leagues against the Cardinals, but just missed out on finding the end zone. Burton finished with four receptions for 55 yards which a solid outing given the current state of the tight end position in fantasy.
This week, Burton faces a Bucs defense that is giving up more than 362 yards per game, tied with the Chiefs for the most yards in the NFL. The Bucs are also giving up the fourth most points at 30.7 per game meaning Burton has an opportunity to find the end zone in Week 4. Burton sounds confident in the Bears offense.
“We [last year with Eagles] won a Super Bowl last year with this offense," Burton explained to the Herald Tribune. "We put up 40-some points five or six times during the season, which doesn’t happen too often. So I know for sure that this offense can work and I have all the trust in the guys calling the plays and the players on the field. We just have to execute.”
Both tight ends in the Bears-Bucs matchup are solid starts. If Burton is not a possible option, O.J. Howard is a good call as well. Howard had six receptions for 72 yards against the Steelers and is trending up for the rest of the season.
Howard faces a more difficult defense against the Bears, but we have seen some teams have success with the tight end against Chicago. According to AL.com, Howard close to 60 of his 72 yards came from YAC (yards after catch), and he is becoming a monster with the football in his hand.
"When you're running, you're really not that tired," Howard said after Week 3 per AL.com. "But when you stop, you feel it, man. So I'm like: I should have just kept going like Forrest."
Vance McDonald Faces a Tough Matchup Against the Ravens
I know what you're thinking, McDonald just had 112 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs. Now I am asking you to sit the Steelers tight end, if possible. McDonald was facing one of the most fantasy-friendly defenses in Tampa Bay, but Baltimore is giving up the second fewest amount of passing yards per game at 169. Baltimore is also top-five in points allowed with 17 points.
Pittsburgh has been utilizing multiple tight ends making it a bit tricky to know who to trust. It is understandable if McDonald is the only tight end you have on your roster. You do not necessarily need to drop him for another player, but you would be wise to temper your expectations for the Steelers tight end against the Ravens.
McDonald had just three receptions for 26 yards the previous week against the Chiefs. Pittsburgh also has Jesse James who Ben Roethlisberger has looked to at times this season.
Start: QB Matt Ryan vs. Bengals
Sit: QB Andrew Luck vs. Texans
The secret is out for the Falcons. With a defense that has lost several key players before the NFL calendar even hit a month, Atlanta's only chance to win games is going to be to outscore their opponents. Most defenses they face are not going to be as bad as the Saints, but the Falcons offense is finally clicking. With the Atlanta defense giving up points, this means even more offensive possessions for Ryan.
Ryan had 375 passing yards and five touchdowns in Week 3. The Bengals defense is coming to town which ranks near the bottom of the league. The Bengals rank in the bottom ten in passing yards allowed, and are No. 20 in points allowed at 24.7.
Part of the reason the Falcons offense is clicking is the emergence of rookie receiver Calvin Ridley, who you should be picking up from your waiver wire if he is still available. After the Falcons narrow loss to the Saints, Ryan spoke about what is working so well with the offense.
“Calvin played really well," Ryan told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "He stepped up when he had the opportunity to. It was clear from the start; the game plan was going to be two guys to account for Julio (Jones) and a safety coming down from the opposite side to account for, where Mohamed (Sanu) was at, and that means Calvin’s singled up in one-on-one coverage. I thought (Steve) Sarkisian did a great job of taking advantage of that, calling plays to get him shots down the field. But at the end of the day, Calvin's got to go out and make those plays, and he's done that for us all season. But today was special. I was proud of him. He did a great job for us.”
Ryan is one of a handful of quarterbacks that you don't want to drop given the outlook of the Atlanta offense going forward.
Andrew Luck Looks Like He Doesn't Have His Best Stuff
It is hard to know what to make of Luck's start to the season. The Colts quarterback is either feeling the rust of being away from football, or the injuries have taken its toll on his ability. Indianapolis even put in Jacoby Brissett for the final play of Week 3. Colts head coach Frank Reich downplayed the decision after the game and reiterated his confidence in Luck going forward.
“What I’ve seen is he makes all the throws,” Reich told the Indy Star. “There’s been plenty of throws down the field, in my mind ... I’ve seen a guy who is extremely accurate. I have no concerns about velocity...Andrew’s playing good football. He made a lot of plays in this game to give us a chance to win. I know he’s like all of us, like the head coach and play-caller, when you don’t win you never feel like you’re good enough. We all wanna be better than we were. The quarterback’s always going to get more credit when you win and blame when you lose.”
Reich may not be concerned, but that does not mean you should start the Colts quarterback. Luck is a firm sit until he turns it around, and even droppable in shallow leagues. Luck has not managed to throw for more than 200 yards in the last two games.
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 4 Predictions