Welcome to Week 5, which we can officially dub as the week Julian Edelman saves the New England Patriots passing game. Maybe. The NFL has given fans a solid Thursday Night Football game this week between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. In turn, DraftKings made sure to offer up plenty of great options for their showdown slate as well.
For those who haven't played a DraftKings showdown game, they can be incredibly exciting and there are ways to find unique edges, but there is also a lot to consider when building lineups. These fantasy games are a unique way to play by focusing on just one single game. The price tags on players on showdown slates are far different than normal games, and you'll also select a captain who costs 1.5-times the salary but also earns 1.5x the points.
DraftKings has continued offering monster showdown games for Thursday Night Football, a trend which stands true again in Week 5. This week the daily fantasy site will offer a $10 game with $1,250,000 guaranteed. First place in this 150-max game will win $250,000.
Along with the huge headliner game, DraftKings is once again offering a large $33 option which features $80,000 guaranteed and $20,000 to the eventual winner. There are also quite a few large single entry events, including $3 ($15,000 guaranteed), $5 ($25,000 guaranteed) and $12 ($30,000 guaranteed) options.
Before we dive into the action for Week 5 and the game let's offer a quick insight into how showdown games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
I'll break down a few different lineups, here which will include a variety of players in the captain spot. There will be one optimal lineup, a lineup for 150-max games (more risk), and one for single entries/cash games (higher-floor players). Before diving into that, though, I'm first going to hit on showdown strategy for this week's game. Every week the strategy will be different, as choices for captain spots will vary.
Colts vs. Patriots Showdown: Captain Choices & Strategy
This game features a few hit-or-miss plays, an interesting spot with two Patriots wideouts and multiple injuries on the Colts side. In turn, there are going to be quite a few unique ways to build lineups, so in the 150-max games, I'm goinig to take a few more risks and try to hit on some overlooked spots.
The captain spot is going to be especially big on this slate, and could there are a few players I think could be underrated options for the key spot. While often times using a less-expensive player seems appealing so you can potentially fit in two or three stars, choosing whether or not to do that depends on the specific game. I'll break down the spots a bit more as we move forward with the lineups, and detail my thought process on each captain I use.
When I begin building lineups, I'll select 4-5 players to consider for the captain spot, mixing up expensive and cheaper options. From there, you can spread those players across multiple lineups and mix in the other top plays with them.
Here's a look at the options I'll be targeting for the captain spot in Week 5 (with captain pricing of 1.5x more):
– Andrew Luck ($17,100)
– Rob Gronkowski ($14,700)
– James White ($14,100)
– Sony Michel ($10,800)
– Nyheim Hines ($9,900)
– Zach Pascal ($3,000)
Favorite expensive captains: Rob Gronkowski, James White
Top value-saving captain: Nyheim Hines, Zach Pascal
Now, I'm going to break down the lines I'll be using, starting with the optimal lineup, then the 150-max lineup and single-entry breakdown.
*Note: If any players currently listed as questionable are ruled out, but are in lineups, I will update this BEFORE lock Thursday.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– Captain: Andrew Luck ($17,100)
– Derrick Henry ($10,800)
– Blaine Gabbert ($8,200)
– Taywan Taylor ($5,400)
– Nyheim Hines ($4,800)
– Adam Vinatieri ($3,400)
The general focus on a cash lineup is to utilize a few players who may be somewhat higher-owned, but also offer a decent amount of upside with a high floor. It's fine to grab a player who's expected to be utilized by many players, but when doing so you'll also want to find one or two lower-owned plays.
In single-entry/cash lineups it's probably not ideal to choose complete dart-throw options who have a heavy amount of risk. In turn, that's why a spot like this is perfect for Titans running back Derrick Henry.
Tennessee's 24-year-old back has been an absolute force in recent weeks, averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry in each of the past four games. Henry destroyed the Jacksonville Jaguars defense three weeks ago to the tune of 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns while scoring on an incredible 99-yard run.
Henry followed that performance up by receiving 33 carries against the New York Giants and going for 170 yards and two touchdowns and then earning 21 carries last week. It's obvious the Titans want to use him as much as possible, but the only concern will be if they fall behind early. Regardless, Henry will see a solid workload and has scored eight touchdowns in the past four games, making him a high floor, high upside play.
As far as Blaine Gabbert goes, I've made it known that I'm not incredibly high on him, but I'm expecting Tennessee to be playing from behind. Assuming that's how this works out, then pairing him with Taywan Taylor makes sense. Taylor received seven targets from Gabbert over the limited number of action the quarterback has had this year, so they at least have a sound rapport.
For good measure on the Gabbert front, the Colts have allowed 3,864 passing yards and 20 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, as well as four rushing scores. Gabbert has the ability to take off and run, so that could be majorly beneficial in this game.
Utilizing High-Floor Options on Colts
I'm high on Andrew Luck in this game and I'm not looking to fade him in many spots. He's a great single entry/cash play, and I think he'll provide a great floor even in a tough environment against a sound defense. The Titans have given up just 18 passing touchdowns and two rushing to opposing quarterbacks, so the matchup isn't easy, but Luck's upside is there.
As for Nyheim Hines, I've given him a strong review previously, and I'll likely have decent ownership in him at this price. He opens a lot up with the rest of the lineup and even though Tennessee has given up just 60 receptions for 375 yards to opposing backs, Hines is electrifying. If the young back can't manage to break one, he still provides a decent floor due to the number of targets and catches he'll likely receive.
I didn't mention Adam Vinatieri previously, but I actually think either kicker in Sunday's game is fine to use. Although expecting either kicker to break the slate open with a big night is probably unrealistic, 10-15 DraftKings points for Vinatieri seems more than realistic.
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150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Zach Pascal ($3,000)
– Tom Brady ($13,000)
– Andrew Luck ($11,400)
– Rob Gronkowski ($9,800)
– Nyheim Hines ($6,600)
– Chester Rogers ($6,000)
*Note: If you want to differentiate yourself massively in a 150-max game, using Patriots WR Josh Gordon at $7,800 is a good way to do it. He's unlikely to garnish high ownership after playing 18 snaps last week, but with Edelman back and Gronkowski drawing attention, he could hit a home run or two.
If I'm able to get two quarterbacks into a showdown lineup I will almost always do it. Thanks to Zach Pascal's low price tag and the two other Colts pass-catchers, it's more than possible and allows the ability to get Rob Gronkowski in with Tom Brady.
I touched on Gronkowski's matchup previously, and it's simply too hard to pass up. Whether players opt to fade Gronk due to his high price tag and the fact he has just 10 targets in the past three games is a big question mark, but I'll be sticking with him on this slate. If doing multiple 150-max games, then I'd go away from Gronkowski some, but I'll be heavy on him in Week 5.
Brady hasn't lit the world on fire how we're used to seeing from him, but he's thrown two or more touchdowns in three of four games while hitting 17 or more fantasy points. The Colts defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 108-of-153 passes this season for 1,165 yards and five touchdowns. I spoke about the return of Edelman earlier, and I think it's being undervalued at this point.
The Patriots offense could absolutely begin humming nicely against a mediocre Colts defense at home with Edelman back. And if that's the case, Brady and Gronkowski will be two of the biggest beneficiaries from a fantasy standpoint.
With this being a 150-max lineup, I decided to go with a pass-heavy stack adding Andrew Luck, Nyheim Hines and Chester Rogers to round out the lineup. It was a close call between Rogers and Ryan Grant, but I'm giving the edge based on upside to the former. Grant is an ideal player to work as a safety blanket for Luck and to get in your cash/single entry lineups. But Rogers broke out last week with Hilton popping in and out of the game due to injuries.
After Rogers' eight-catch, 85-yard performance, I wouldn't be surprised to see him once again see double-digit targets and even potentially find the end zone. He's seen one red zone target in each of the past two weeks, so Luck is looking his way down there.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Sony Michel ($10,800)
– Andrew Luck ($11,400)
– Rob Gronkowski ($9,800)
– James White ($9,400)
– Ryan Grant ($6,200)
– Zach Pascal ($2,000)
When creating single entry or cash lineups, you want plays which are fairly safe and have high floors. While Zach Pascal in single entry lines doesn't have me overly thrilled, I think he has a fine floor with Hilton, Mack, and Doyle all out. Even if he duds and catches 3-4 short passes, it's still worth the price.
Based on the game script I'm expecting, though, this lineup has safety almost across the board. There should be no shortage of points, and whether one team jumps out big or it stays close, each of these players will see a solid workload.
I love the idea of pairing Pascal with Andrew Luck here, but also adding in Ryan Grant, who I believe could see quite a few short targets and rack up a large number of catches. Grant saw seven targets last week, catching five of them for 64 yards and I think that's probably his floor in this game. Expecting 8-10 targets for the wideout is realistic, and he could easily blow past that number.
The Patriots have also given up 664 yards and six scores to opposing wideouts, and in a high-scoring game, putting Luck with these two receivers makes quite a bit of sense. And speaking of Luck, he had a major breakout last week in a great spot, throwing for a career-high 464 yards and adding four touchdowns.
Luck has completed over 62.5 percent of his passes in every game this season, and it's safe to say his confidence is fully back. On the year, New England has allowed quarterbacks to toss eight touchdowns in four games, so if we can get a two-touchdown performance at a minimum from Luck, he's a great cash/single entry play.
I can't rave any more about Rob Gronkowski than I already have, so it was a lock he'd be in my single entry tournament lineup. But I'm going to try to make this lineup somewhat unique by pairing up the two Patriots running backs in James White and Sony Michel. White's floor is about as safe as they come – he's totaled 14 DraftKings points or more in each game and scored 31.2 last week.
As for Michel, the Patriots gave him 25 carries in Week 4, resulting in a 112-yard performance with one touchdown. I don't expect that many attempts in this game, as it should be closer, but I do think he could be looking at 15-18 carries and plenty of work on the goal line.
A two-touchdown game for Michel isn't out of the question, especially considering that Bill Belichick seems to want to get his new running back involved early and often. At a reasonable captain's price of $10,200, it allows us to still use very strong players around him, and he provides some stability in the process.
In single entry tournaments you need to be a little different, and as previously mentioned, my hope is that the White/Michel stack achieves that here.
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