NFL Picks for Chiefs vs. Rams: Todd Gurley Prop Among Best Bets

Todd Gurley

Getty Los Angeles Rams RB Todd Gurley

To wrap up Week 11 of the NFL season, we get a potential Super Bowl preview as the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) head to take on the Los Angeles Rams (9-1). This game was originally slated to be played in Mexico City, but poor field conditions resulted in the location being changed. While the matchup features two of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, there are quite a few unique betting options that stand out in this game.

Oddsmakers believe it’ll be a close game when MVP candidates Patrick Mahomes and Todd Gurley square off on Monday Night Football, with the Rams slated as three-point favorites. The total is set at a lofty 63 points and it wouldn’t be surprising if the over winds up as the popular bet.

We’re going to take a look at a few of the top bets for this game, including prop bets and a bet on the actual game itself. With that said, taking either side with the spread or the over/under doesn’t seem incredibly appealing, so I took a different route for my game bet. Let’s dive into it with a few props first, starting with one on Gurley.

*Note: All prop bets/odds are from Intertops.

Todd Gurley Over 148.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)

This may very well be my favorite bet on the board. When I saw the number for Todd Gurley’s rushing and receiving yards at 148.5, I assumed the odds would be at -130 or -140. The Chiefs boast one of the worst defenses against opposing running backs in the NFL. They’ve allowed 1,080 rushing yards on 212 carries, 75 receptions and 733 receiving yards along with 15 total touchdowns to the position.

Regardless of whether or not the Chiefs win this game, Gurley is going to have a big day and this is a home run spot for him. Don’t be surprised if he clears 125-135 rushing yards alone.

Travis Kelce +5.5 Receiving Yards vs. Robert Woods (-115)

Although Robert Woods is in a fine spot against the Chiefs and should see his fair share of work, there’s something key that stands out here. With Cooper Kupp now out for the year due to a torn ACL, it means Woods is expected to handle slot receiver duties. He took on this same role in Weeks 7 and 8, catching five passes in both games for 70 and 78 yards.

As Rotoworld’s Evan Silva detailed, the Chiefs have fared well against slot receivers also. The likes of Julian Edelman (4/51/1), Jarvis Landry (6/50), Tyler Boyd (3/27) and Emmanuel Sanders (4/57 and 5/45) have all been held in check.

On the opposite side, Travis Kelce is in an absolute smash spot. He’s a favorite target of quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Rams have had struggles against opposing tight ends. On the season, they’ve allowed 45 receptions for 624 yards and three scores to the position. On the season, Kelce has seen at least five targets in every game and seven or more in eight of 10. he should top the 100-yard mark with ease.

Travis Kelce to Score a Touchdown (-133)

All of the wonderful things I said about Kelce above all stand true here as well. Technically, I could have just put “ditto” and moved along, but I like to think I’m better than that. Kelce has caught 19 passes in the last three games and found the end zone three times over that span.

For good measure, the Chiefs tight end has five red zone targets in that three-game stretch, so it’s not as though Mahomes isn’t looking his way often. Kelce is going to receive plenty of red zone looks and in a game projected to have quite a few points, that bodes well for his chances to add to his touchdown total.

Josh Reynolds Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

There’s a good chance most people are going to look past this bet, simply because it’s not your typical big-game player prop. But Reynolds improved in his second of two games holding down the fort for Kupp a few weeks back. After catching just one pass for 19 yards in the first game, he pulled in 3-of-5 targets for 42 yards and two scores the next game.

I probably wouldn’t take this bet if it were any random game, but I’m projecting a lot of points here and a whole lot of total yards from both teams. If that proves to be the case, then Reynolds should have no problem picking up 4-5 catches for 50 yards at least.

Game Pick: 7-Point Teaser on Chiefs +10 and Over 57 (-130)

There are quite a few teams where I’m not a huge fan of either side of a bet. But I love targeting specific spots in games, and this is one of them. While the Chiefs currently sit at +3 with an over/under at 63, both of those are pretty tough betting options. Although I can see Kansas City winning this game outright, I’m a big fan of taking the seven-point teaser and then grabbing the Chiefs and the over.

A total of 63 points is a big number, and essentially if these two teams hit one drought in the game, then it could be in danger. Personally, I’d recommend eating the odds at -130 to get the Chiefs up to +10 and take the over 57. I can easily see a final score of 35-28 or 34-27. Even a final of 31-28 would get us the over in this spot.

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