Baker Mayfield
Captain Breakdown for Browns vs. Broncos
In the first Saturday NFL action we'll quickly find out what time of encore performance the Browns and Broncos can give us to Thursday's game. While the first Week 15 game between the Chargers and Chiefs on Thursday night was an exciting one, it was likely frustrating for fantasy players.
The showdown slate specifically featured both Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen among the top plays on the board. We saw Hill have an easy touchdown catch bounce off his facemask and Allen got hurt in the second quarter, so it was a run of unfortunate events. But, it's time to turn the tides back and right the ship behind the many intriguing targets in this game.
On the surface, the Browns and Broncos may not look like the greatest game for fantasy football purposes, but at second glance, it's pretty appealing. There are some strong options, potentially low-owned plays and great matchups in a few specific spots. In turn, choosing the top captains can go a few different ways.
With that said, the bulk of captain choices will typically come from high-priced players, but that's not always the best approach to take. This game comes with a healthy projected total of 46.5 (per Odds Shark), so there should be some points in this one.
Often times, I'll use the projected total and a prediction on how the game flow will go in order to construct lineups and even pick captains. If you think we're going to see a shootout with a lot of back-and-forth, then looking for high-upside players would make sense. I'll dive deeper into that, but there are certainly some intriguing names on both sides worthy of captain consideration for this slate.
Favorite Captain Choices for Browns vs. Broncos
For the most part, I lock in on 4-5 main players to target as captains, which allows me additional flexibility while building lineups. From there, I'll typically zero in on 2-3 who are my favorite choices. I'm going to lay out the handful of names who I'll have in captain consideration, and break down my top targets as we roll through the lineups.
These are the top targets for Saturday's matchup between the Browns and Broncos, all of which feature the 1.5x price tag on DraftKings.
– Phillip Lindsay ($17,700)
– Baker Mayfield ($17,100)
– Nick Chubb ($16,800)
– Jarvis Landry ($15,600)
– DaeSean Hamilton ($9,900)
– Tim Patrick ($8,700)
*David Njoku ($9,000) and Antonio Callaway ($7,800) can be considered as other inexpensive options.
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: Phillip Lindsay, Nick Chubb
Top value-saving captains: Tim Patrick, DaeSean Hamilton
Although the captains seem to be somewhat top-heavy at first glance, I actually have no issue with paying down at captain if you're expecting more of a low-scoring game. Players such as DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick will provide a solid floor due to the expectation of a potentially high number of targets.
As far as the expensive names go, it's hard to overlook Phillip Lindsay based on his matchup and upside, but the decision on how to roll him out largely comes down to the construction of lineups. If you have the money for Lindsay as a captain, he's a great option. I'm somewhat wary of the ownership for Jarvis Landry after last week's game, though, so using him as a flex option could be wise here.
Let's start things off with the optimal lineup and I'll break down the specific plays along the way.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Tim Patrick ($8,700)
– Phillip Lindsay ($11,800)
– Nick Chubb ($11,200)
– DaeSean Hamilton ($6,600)
– David Njoku ($6,000)
– Antonio Callaway ($5,200)
My first thought here was to focus on getting in a well-rounded group but also adding a decent amount of upside to the mix. With the number of players capable of putting up solid stat lines in this game, I think we can go a variety of different ways here. The Tim Patrick play is one that I'm fairly curious about when it comes to figuring out what ownership will look like.
Although Patrick had an impressive game last week, catching 7-of-10 targets for 85 yards, he's largely unknown to many. Pairing that with his price being low, there's a chance he gets looked over during some builds. If that's the case then getting him in this spot is certainly ideal.
Even going beyond just his production, it's worth noting that in the first game with Emmanuel Sanders sidelined, Patrick played more snaps than Courtland Sutton. Many may still opt to flock to Sutton, but with Patrick playing 86 percent of the snaps and DaeSean Hamilton racking up 97 percent (per Football Outsiders), I like both targets.
Speaking of Hamilton, it was expected he would get a boost with Sanders out, and that proved true. The rookie wideout caught 7-of-9 targets for 47 yards and one touchdown. Obviously, the yardage isn't ideal, but if his volume stays high and he can rack up targets and possibly find the end zone, this is a great price for him.
Antonio Callaway & David Njoku
For the most part, I don't go incredibly heavy in building lineups quarterbacks in them for showdowns. I do believe that Saturday's game may be the rare exception where you don't have to force a signal-caller in. There are a variety of strong options and more specifically, players with great matchups.
On the Antonio Callaway front, this is a spot that jumps out. The Broncos are without Chris Harris here, but they've struggled all season against opposing wide receivers regardless. On the year, they've given up 2,170 yards and 14 touchdowns to the position. This bodes well for a variety of players, but for Callaway, he makes for both a solid well-rounded lineup choice and 150-max play.
The reason for this has to do with his unquestionable upside, but also the poor showing he had last game. Many players will see that Callaway had just one fantasy point last week, and even if they dive deeper you'll see that he was only targeted once as well. All of that looks ugly, but there's more than meets the eye.
Cleveland only threw the ball 22 times while running 45 plays in total last week, both stats which will likely be overlooked. Callaway's upside is there, but prior to this week, he had caught 7-of-11 targets in the two weeks prior for 146 yards and one touchdown. It's also worth noting that his snaps didn't fall off the deep end either, as he played 73 percent in last week's game, second-most behind Jarvis Landry (per Football Outsiders).
David Njoku is one other name I need to mention, but I'll dive a bit deeper into him as we go. Although the young tight end has been hit-or-miss this season, we're staring at an elite spot for him here. Njoku's talent isn't the question and with a matchup against a Broncos team who's allowed 65 receptions for 977 yards and six touchdowns to the position, he's in play here.
Denver ranks as one of the worst teams in the NFL against opposing tight ends, making Njoku an intriguing play and one who won't break the bank either. I'm happy to roll him out in a fair amount of lineups, and he's even better if you believe the Browns are playing from behind.
Next up is the 150-max lineup which boasts a mixture of high upside plays and some risk as well.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Jarvis Landry ($15,600)
– Baker Mayfield ($11,400)
– Nick Chubb ($11,200)
– Tim Patrick ($5,800)
– Greg Joseph ($3,200)
– Breshad Perriman ($2,800)
There's an obvious focus here on this lineup, and it was to target the Browns offense and then look at a boom-or-bust play on the Broncos side. Obviously, there's a focus on game script here and the belief that the Browns put up major points, or at the very least produce a high yardage total.
I do believe the Broncos will prove to be more popular in terms of go-to fantasy football targets for this showdowns late. Denver has a few of the top value-saving players and also a running back in a great spot. This is why I flipped to look at the other direction and make an effort to load up on Cleveland.
There's risk with this lineup, but that becomes wildly apparent with the Breshad Perriman choice. To be honest, I can't fault many for wanting to play it a bit safer with the optimal, or at the very least the single-entry/cash (next up). Both of those have plenty of appeal on each side of the ball, but there's a reason to give Perriman a chance here.
I went back to Week 12 and evaluated Perriman's workload, and the numbers are interesting. As Football Outsiders shows, he played 55, 46 and 37 percent of the snaps in the past three games. Obviously, that 37 percent was impacted by the fact that the Cleveland offense ran just 45 offensive plays all game.
Although Perriman isn't a player who'll see double-digit targets, since receiving six looks back in early November against the Kansas City Chiefs, he's drawn two targets in each game but one. More importantly, the former Baltimore Ravens pass-catcher is coming off an 81-yard game against the Carolina Panthers, as he showcased his big-play ability.
Browns Offensive Outlook vs. Broncos
The Browns face a tall task heading across the country after a big win against the Panthers, there's no question about that. But I'm also not willing to put anything past a new-look Cleveland group which features a confident trio leading their offense.
And while Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry are all going to garnish high ownership, for at least one of the 150-max lineups I'll create, they'll all be together. If Cleveland's solid offense play can continue against a Broncos defense who's struggled against a few areas where the Browns thrive, then this is a great setup.
There's a risk in going heavy on Browns players on the road, but that's what you need to look for in 150-max games to some extent. Landry's matchup with the Broncos defense who's allowed 14 touchdowns this year looks great on paper, and the absence of Chris Harris helps. Pairing him up with Mayfield, who's hit double-digit touchdown passes in five of the last seven games, is a strong stack option.
The situation with Chubb is one worth mentioning as well. The Denver run defense isn't one I'd go out of my way to pick on. After all, but they've allowed a modest 1,412 rushing yards on 296 carries along with 64 receptions for 565 yards and nine total touchdowns to runners. But the fact that Chubb is seeing the bulk of the work both on the ground and through the air puts him in play.
Last week, the Browns rookie running back caught 4-of-6 targets and in the three games prior he totaled three receptions in each. There's going to be a heavy dose of work going to Chubb once again this week and he's looked more than ready for it.
For those who aren't interested in the Breshad Perriman risk, the single entry/cash lineup is far more balanced and I'll evaluate that option next.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Tim Patrick ($8,700)
– Phillip Lindsay ($11,800)
– Jarvis Landry ($10,400)
– Case Keenum ($9,200)
– David Njoku ($6,000)
– Brand McManus ($3,400)
For what it's worth if the name "Breshad Perriman" scared you immediately onto the single entry lineup, I can't blame you. With that said, the 150-max lineups aren't for everyone, but single entry options should be right up the alley of every fantasy football player. While I'll focus on safe plays and options who have fairly high ceilings, there does need to be a certain approach taken in these games.
Games that don't have as much variance as 150-max options allow you to use the players such as Phillip Lindsay who provide both upside and fairly little risk. But those are the players who also come with hefty price tags, so you'll have to build around them in a unique fashion.
While Lindsay is in an absolutely elite spot here against the Browns, he'll also likely be one of the most popular plays. On the season, Cleveland has allowed 1,429 rushing yards, 666 receiving yards and 15 total touchdowns to opposing running backs. Lindsay should be chomping at the bit to hit the field against this group.
With Lindsay, I opted to build a bit around the Denver theme, as I believe the Broncos are in a solid spot on their home field and facing the Denzel Ward-less Browns. This only adds to the intrigue of Tim Patrick, a player who I'm planning to have a large amount of throughout lineups on this showdown slate.
And largely due to Cleveland's struggles against running backs and wideouts, paired with Ward's absence, that's why I'll take the low price of Case Keenum and roll him out here. But, I'll admit that I'm not in love with the idea of Keenum on this slate.
The Case Keenum Conundrum
To put it lightly, Keenum has been a massive fantasy headache this season. Whether it's daily fantasy football slates with multiple games or just showdowns, he's a brutal option to gauge the value of. In the last seven games, the Broncos quarterback has fallen below 17.5 DraftKings points and hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in any of the past three games.
With all that being said, even with mediocre production in the most recent stretch, Keenum has scored 13.8 and 15.5 fantasy points. No, those numbers aren't great and don't point to an overly-high upside, but I mentioned before the Browns are traveling across the country and the Broncos' playoff hopes are on the line.
If there were a spot to ever target Keenum, this is it. I think his floor is safe in this game and he could surprise with a decent amount of upside. As you can tell from other builds also, I believe the elite spots for his wideouts make them great targets, so I won't completely ignore the signal-caller here.
One other area that does need to be addressed is the kicking situation. I've used both kickers and will have them sporadically in lineups. Brandon McManus hasn't excelled as of late, but I'm putting some belief in the fact that the Broncos will put points on the board here. I'm fine with either kicker, as I do believe their floor is safe and field goals could become popular throughout Saturday's game.
Most importantly, we know the ball soars in Denver, so both kickers have a solid chance at connecting on one or two long attempts. The weather looks fine there as well, so it's a low-risk play and one that could come with a decent reward.
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