Following a busy Week 17 of the NFL season which features plenty of games with major playoff implications, the nightcap provides a crucial matchup as well. The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans are both battling for a playoff position and the two meet in primetime to decide who goes dancing.
As long as there isn't a tie, then one of the two teams playing on Sunday Night Football this week will be heading to the playoffs. While the Titans would have an immediate edge due to the home-field advantage, some bad news came to light ahead of the matchup. As ESPN's Adam Schefter revealed, quarterback Marcus Mariota will miss this game due to a nerve condition caused by a "stinger" which could impact him long term if it gets worse.
"Mariota is officially listed as questionable and reportedly will test his arm in pregame warm-ups. But one source told ESPN that an independent spine specialist has warned the Titans that further damage would put Mariota's ability to throw the football at significant risk beyond this weekend." Schefter stated.
This means Blaine Gabbert will get the nod as the team's starter in Week 17 and sets up an interesting situation. Not only do the Titans' chances of winning this game decrease with Mariota out of the lineup, but it impacts the fantasy football outlook as well. Obviously, season-long leagues that are still playing won't feature Gabbert in starting lineups more than likely, but daily games will be worth talking about.
And that's what we'll cover here, as the Sunday night matchup is a good one and we're taking a deep dive into the DraftKings showdown slate. It's the final regular-season showdown slate, so there should be plenty of interest in this matchup.
For those who haven't played a showdown before, these are single-game options which feature a different set of rules (to some extent) than regular DFS games. In turn, you'll want to take a different approach to building lineups for these games which I'll evaluate as we move forward with different options.
To cover this game I'll lay out the top picks and three different DraftKings lineups. As always, there is a range of different game options for this matchup, including single-entry tournaments, multi-entry events (150-max, 20-max and others) as well as additional choices beyond that. In order to cover each base, the lineups offered will be an optimal, 150-max and single entry.
Before the picks and lineups, I'll first lay out how DraftKings showdowns work and then evaluate the bonus spot. These games feature a captain spot which is one player who costs 1.5-times the regular amount. You choose one player to go in this spot per lineup and it comes with a bonus of 1.5x as well.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
First up I'll break down the captain spot in this game and also the thought process for which players to build around.
Captain Choices for Colts vs. Titans
Selecting captains in DraftKings showdown games can be approached a variety of ways, depending on your personal preference. One key focus (aside from picking a high-scoring player) is to differentiate yourself from the field. That's going to be a primary focus here, as there's a good chance that many players could jump on the same names in the captain spot.
There's a lot that goes into deciding who to put into that top spot, for a variety of reasons. Sometimes, putting the highest-projected player isn't the best approach to take. That decision will really come down to the actual game itself and how you project the game flow to go between the two teams.
You'll be able to use the captain spot as a way to differentiate DFS lineups and give yourself an edge against the field if handled correctly. Depending on the number of value plays that are available in a game, there are times you'll be better off paying down at captain and finding a mid-range option. Choosing to go this route would potentially allow you to fit another stud into the flex spots and build a stronger core across the board.
For the most part, I'll lock in on 4-6 main players to target as the captain, but that decision will come down to a few different things. Regardless of how many total players I choose, I'll then narrow it down to 2-3 who are my favorite options and typically build primarily around them. Selecting somewhat of a larger number allows me a certain level of flexibility when creating lineups.
A fine way to approach captain selection can be to look at the projected total on a game. While you can use any player at any position on either team, if a game has a high over/under (which you agree with), it can impact your thought process on creating lineups. On the other side, a lower total could also impact the way start the builds.
As Odds Shark shows, the current total for this game is pretty low, sitting at 43.5 and the popular consensus seems to be on the under. With that said, there's some reason to believe that this number has a chance to be fairly accurate consider everything on the line for the two teams. I'll likely approach this with a few solid plays who have high floors, but a few boom-or-bust plays tacked on in spots.
These are the top targets for Sunday's game between the Colts and Titans, each of which features the 1.5x price tag on DraftKings.
– Andrew Luck ($17,100)
– T.Y. Hilton ($16,500)
– Derrick Henry ($16,200)
– Taywan Taylor ($8,100)
– Nyheim Hines ($7,200)
*Marlon Mack ($14,400, upside), Eric Ebron ($11,100, bad matchup) are also both worth considering.
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton
Top value-saving captains: Nyheim Hines
I decided to narrow down the choices at captain a bit because I simply think there's too much risk and potentially not enough upside to use quite a few of the other potential options there. Obviously, players like Titans wide receiver Corey Davis provide a pretty high ceiling, but with Blaine Gabbert under center, it likely lowers his upside a bit.
Speaking of Gabbert, I did consider him here, and I think there's an argument to be made that at his price ($12,300 as a captain), he's probably worth taking a chance on in 150-max games. As far as why I opted not to list Colts running back Marlon Mack and tight end Eric Ebron as top captains, they just have horrible matchups. Considering the situation and fact that this is a playoff-making game for both teams, I still think both players are in the mix.
Let's jump into the optimal lineup and I'll evaluate top picks throughout the process.
Optimal Lineup
– Captain: T.Y. Hilton ($16,500)
– Andrew Luck ($11,400)
– Corey Davis ($7,800)
– Taywan Taylor ($5,400)
– Nyheim Hines ($4,800)
– Adam Vinatieri ($3,400)
There are a variety of ways to approach the optimal lineup, but also unique approaches to take in order to be different than the field. Although Derrick Henry has an elevated price due to his impressive recent stretch, I still think he's going to have decent ownership. In turn, not using him in the optimal creates a different approach.
Each lineup created typically has some focus on a certain game flow while also covering on some level in case that game flow doesn't completely go as planned. In this one, I'm pegging the Colts to put points on the board and likely force the Titans to play catch-up a bit. Obviously, with the Titans at home in a crucial game, this could go a variety of ways, but this is one approach.
With that focus, stacking Andrew Luck with T.Y. Hilton provides the high-upside pairing. Although the Titans have been good against opposing quarterbacks, Luck has been incredibly good this year with the exception of a few games. Over the first 15 games, the Colts signal-caller has thrown two or more touchdowns 12 times. He's also reeled off three or more on eight occasions.
As for Hilton, he has an appealing matchup and has a chance to be the highest-scoring player on the slate. The Titans pass defense isn't horrible by any means, but they have allowed 2,489 yards and 18 touchdowns on 192 receptions this year to opposing wide receivers.
To finish off the Colts side, I opted to go with Nyheim Hines, who I believe will have a fair amount of ownership, but nothing over the top. The team's backup running back will get the bulk of the pass-catching work and see touches regardless of game flow. But if for some reason the Colts don't get a lead, Hines could see an expanded workload which is nice as he's seen 25 targets in the past four games.
Titans Wide Receiver Pairing
On the Titans side, there's exposure to be had in a few places, and while I'm somewhat bullish on the matchup against a solid Colts secondary, if they're playing from behind it won't matter. I don't trust Blaine Gabbert very much, but of the 72 passes he's thrown this season, a decent number of them have gone to Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor.
Specifically, Davis has seen 17 targets from Gabbert while Taylor has picked up seven. With both players locked into large workloads, they'll provide a solid floor. The upside for both is certainly apparent as well, considering Davis is the clear-cut top target and Taylor had six catches three weeks ago and topped 100 yards the week prior.
There's some risk with the Titans side of the ball and specifically their passing game. The Colts have allowed just 1,920 yards and 13 touchdowns to opposing wideouts. Those numbers aren't off-the-walls incredible but are still worth mentioning.
Next up is the 150-max lineup which offers a mixture of high upside plays and some risk as well.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– Captain: Eric Ebron ($11,100)
– Andrew Luck ($11,400)
– T.Y. Hilton ($11,000)
– Marlon Mack ($9,600)
– Dion Lewis ($5,000)
– MyCole Pruitt ($1,600)
It's safe to say that this lineup isn't exactly for the faint of heart. After all, most daily fantasy football players wouldn't have the slightest bit of interest in taking a chance on MyCole Pruitt, but there's an argument to be made for him on this slate.
Although there's a lot that needs to be figured out with the Titans offense, I find Pruitt to be an interesting name. He's one that comes with a whole lot of risk, but interesting nonetheless. When Tennessee lost Jonnu Smith for the season (along with Delanie Walker prior), it's left them thin at tight end.
Originally, Anthony Firkser looked like he'd be the player to step up and fill the void, but that hasn't completely been the case. Over the past two weeks, Luke Stocker has led the way playing 68 and 66 percent of the snaps while Firkser played 50 and 21 and Pruitt played 48 and 57 percent, per Football Outsiders. The young tight end has seen his playing time increase and has five targets in the past two games.
The most important part here is that Gabbert targeted Pruitt four times (in 72 attempts) earlier this year in games, and that was before injuries basically ravaged the tight end position. The Colts also struggle against opposing tight ends, allowing 99 receptions for 1,138 yards and four touchdowns this season.
In 150-max line breakdowns I like to evaluate some of the riskier or more questionable plays, and the choice of Eric Ebron is worth mentioning. Although the Colts tight end has a decent amount of upside, his matchup is pretty terrible.
The Titans have given up just 60 catches for 564 yards this season with no touchdowns. In short, Ebron is the definition of boom-or-bust, he's a talented player who struggles with drops, but should be able to win most matchups. If he's able to use that talent in a crucial game, I think he could be a low-owned player who breaks the slate open.
The Running Back Choices
The situation at running back for both teams is interesting on Sunday night. While the Titans have seen Derrick Henry turn it on as of late, Gabbert actually utilized Dion Lewis quite a bit of the backfield this season. He drew the second-most targets of any Titans player from the backup quarterback (12) behind only Corey Davis.
While Lewis has taken a backseat to Henry, if Tennessee falls behind in this game we could see the workload flip a bit potentially. With the Colts having the potential to put points on the board in a hurry, that's a very real possibility.
As for Marlon Mack, I mentioned previously how tough his matchup is. With a "win and get in" situation, there are quite a few times where it makes sense to simply put the matchup on the backburner a bit. It is worth noting that the Titans have allowed just six rushing touchdowns all season and rank as one of the NFL's best defenses against the run.
The final lineup is the single entry/cash lineup which is far more balanced. It's better for players who are playing games with less than 150-max entries, allowing you to avoid the heavy risks for the most part.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– Captain: Andrew Luck ($17,100)
– Derrick Henry ($10,800)
– Blaine Gabbert ($8,200)
– Taywan Taylor ($5,400)
– Nyheim Hines ($4,800)
– Adam Vinatieri ($3,400)
The general focus on a cash lineup is to utilize a few players who may be somewhat higher-owned, but also offer a decent amount of upside with a high floor. It's fine to grab a player who's expected to be utilized by many players, but when doing so you'll also want to find one or two lower-owned plays.
In single-entry/cash lineups it's probably not ideal to choose complete dart-throw options who have a heavy amount of risk. In turn, that's why a spot like this is perfect for Titans running back Derrick Henry.
Tennessee's 24-year-old back has been an absolute force in recent weeks, averaging at least 4.0 yards per carry in each of the past four games. Henry destroyed the Jacksonville Jaguars defense three weeks ago to the tune of 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns while scoring on an incredible 99-yard run.
Henry followed that performance up by receiving 33 carries against the New York Giants and going for 170 yards and two touchdowns and then earning 21 carries last week. It's obvious the Titans want to use him as much as possible, but the only concern will be if they fall behind early. Regardless, Henry will see a solid workload and has scored eight touchdowns in the past four games, making him a high floor, high upside play.
As far as Blaine Gabbert goes, I've made it known that I'm not incredibly high on him, but I'm expecting Tennessee to be playing from behind. Assuming that's how this works out, then pairing him with Taywan Taylor makes sense. Taylor received seven targets from Gabbert over the limited number of action the quarterback has had this year, so they at least have a sound rapport.
For good measure on the Gabbert front, the Colts have allowed 3,864 passing yards and 20 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, as well as four rushing scores. Gabbert has the ability to take off and run, so that could be majorly beneficial in this game.
Utilizing High-Floor Options on Colts
I'm high on Andrew Luck in this game and I'm not looking to fade him in many spots. He's a great single entry/cash play, and I think he'll provide a great floor even in a tough environment against a sound defense. The Titans have given up just 18 passing touchdowns and two rushing to opposing quarterbacks, so the matchup isn't easy, but Luck's upside is there.
As for Nyheim Hines, I've given him a strong review previously, and I'll likely have decent ownership in him at this price. He opens a lot up with the rest of the lineup and even though Tennessee has given up just 60 receptions for 375 yards to opposing backs, Hines is electrifying. If the young back can't manage to break one, he still provides a decent floor due to the number of targets and catches he'll likely receive.
I didn't mention Adam Vinatieri previously, but I actually think either kicker in Sunday's game is fine to use. Although expecting either kicker to break the slate open with a big night is probably unrealistic, 10-15 DraftKings points for Vinatieri seems more than realistic.
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