Due to the fact that the 2018 NFL regular season is beginning to wind down, the fantasy football year is over for many people. But, that doesn't mean there's not a different approach to take when evaluating targets for fantasy games. Obviously, while some players are in the mix for their league championship (or possibly semifinals), many others are eyeing something else.
This, of course, would be daily fantasy football. For the final weeks of the NFL season, DraftKings features big games with huge prize pools. In turn, some will look to take the knowledge they've picked up throughout the season and attempt to use it in DFS.
The data found in most start/sit debates can almost always help to figure out a game plan for weekly fantasy games. At the very least, it will help to provide a nice starting point for players you'll want to consider building lineups around.
Considering that players are looking for advice on all different types of games now, we're going to do the start 'em sit 'em for Week 16 in a unique fashion. For starters, we'll include more names and also provide some insight into the pricing of players on DraftKings as well. From there, I'll also lay out a few DFS-specific plays for each position. These are names who are either good values or top players who are underpriced.
Before we jump right into that, let's first take a look at a few of the key injuries that stand out heading into the week and how it could impact the fantasy week.
Week 16 Fantasy Injuries to Play Big Role in Decisions
While there are a variety of names worth monitoring the status of moving forward, we've compiled a list of a few of the biggest players on the injury report. It's worth noting that the status for many of these players could change and will be finalized as games draw closer. Let's start off with an interesting group of running backs.
*Note: All info on injury updates courtesy of Rotoworld.
– Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (out, injured reserve)
– James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (seems unlikely to play)
– Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams (likely to play)
– Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (likely to play)
– Matt Breida, RB, San Francisco 49ers (TBD)
– Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (likely to play)
– Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants (unlikely)
– Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (unlikely)
– Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (TBD)
Moving forward, we'll evaluate each position and lay out who the top names to start are and also which players are worth sitting this week. When it comes to injuries, I'll notate if a player is only worth starting if due to an injury.
As far as the DraftKings side of the evaluation goes, the picks will be somewhat based off the starts in each section, but I will also provide a few additional names to consider. Moving forward in the week, I'll have a full weekend breakdown of daily fantasy content, but this is a good starting point.
Let's start off with the start-sit breakdown for the quarterback position.
Quarterback Start 'Em Sit 'Em Week 16
The quarterback position is somewhat loaded with intriguing options both in season-long and daily fantasy football leagues. With some low-priced options worth potentially streaming, the key evaluation will be centered around DFS here. There are still a few big names who deserve to remain on your bench in season-long leagues.
Start: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
If you were burnt by Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense in Week 15, it's understandable to feel bitter. With that said, they get a prime bounce-back spot here against a poor pass defense in a position where winning sends them dancing. For good measure, Dallas also gets to play on their home field which provides a big advantage.
The Buccaneers have allowed 3,839 yards and 30 passing touchdowns (second-most in NFL). For good measure, they've also given up 292 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, pointing to another avenue to success for Prescott.
Sit: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions vs. Vikings
The Detroit Lions are now out of the postseason mix and essentially have nothing to play for. Now they get to face a Minnesota Vikings team who needs to keep winning in order to hold off the teams behind them in the playoff standings. It's a less-than-ideal situation for the Lions as a whole, but it's very bad for Stafford.
Although the Lions are on their home field, the Vikings have been great against opposing quarterbacks. On the year they've allowed just 15 touchdown passes and intercepted 12 passes. There's very little to like about this spot for Stafford.
Start: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns vs. Bengals
The Browns' playoff chances are still alive, but they need a whole lot of help. Fortunately, the Browns first need to focus on winning in Week 16, which comes against a depleted Bengals team. This is a great spot for Cleveland, but specifically Baker Mayfield, who's flashed tremendous upside in recent weeks.
We all remember the last time Mayfield and the Browns faced the Bengals. It was the infamous "I won't hug you" postgame moment between the quarterback and former coach Hue Jackson. In that game, Baker threw four touchdown passes while completing 73.1 percent of his passes. There's no reason to believe Cincinnati will magically figure Mayfield out.
Additional DraftKings QB Targets Week 16
– Andrew Luck vs. New York Giants ($6,200)
– Deshaun Watson at Philadelphia Eagles ($6,600)
– Taylor Heinicke vs. Atlanta Falcons ($4,000)
The matchups and current playoff push for both Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson are too appealing to ignore. Both players have plenty to play for, and each draws a solid matchup statistically. When it gets to this point in the season, many decisions come down to finding players who have a lot to play for or finding strong value.
And speaking of value, that's where Carolina Panthers new starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke comes into play. The Panthers have opted to sit Cam Newton for the remainder of the season, meaning the third-year pro in Heinicke will draw the start. On the season, the Falcons have allowed 28 touchdowns through the air and four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. This is an intriguing spot and at $4,000 he's worth playing in big tournaments.
Running backs are up on the slate and we've laid out a few top options and one high-profile name to leave on the bench.
Optimal Lineup
– Captain: Chris Carson ($13,500)
– Patrick Mahomes ($12,000)
– Russell Wilson ($10,400)
– Damien Williams ($7,000)
– Mike Davis ($3,800)
– Sebastian Janikowski ($3,200)
The focus on the optimal lineup front comes down primarily on finding a well-rounded group with a fair amount of upside as well. Although the Seattle Seahawks have a strong passing attack, it's hard to ignore what Chris Carson has done as of late.
Carson has proven to be capable of holding down a large workload, receiving 22 carries in each of the past two games. He's topped 90 yards on the ground in each of those while scoring once in each matchup. The Seahawks now draw a Chiefs defense that's allowed 1,532 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground to opposing running backs.
For good measure, and a big reason why Mike Davis gets the nod, the Chiefs have also struggled with pass-catching backs. They've given up 90 receptions for 877 yards and six touchdowns on the year which bodes incredibly well for Davis.
One key selling point on Davis is how productive he's been as a pass-catcher with Rashaad Penny sidelined, as his backfield mate will be inactive this week. As Rotoworld's Evan Silva detailed, Davis has totaled lines of 14/75/1, 11/34 and 13/84 with Penny out of the lineup. It's a nice added bonus that Davis caught eight passes last week, and it's apparent that Russell Wilson has no problem looking his way.
The idea behind using Wilson paired up with Carson and Davis comes with a bit of risk, but there's also an interesting amount of uniqueness that makes it appealing. Very few are going to opt to go a route that includes two running backs from the same team, especially paired with a quarterback, but it's a high upside spot here.
Patrick Mahomes
I'm a bit torn on the Patrick Mahomes situation currently. It's a tough spot because he's priced so high, but his upside is absurd in a spot like this. If he fits in lineups, I'm more than happy to use him, and I think he makes sense here, without question. The Seahawks pass defense isn't daunting, so Mahomes should have little issue producing at a high level on Sunday.
Although I don't have Mahomes stacked with any of his receivers or Travis Kelce in this lineup, I think that's a strong approach to take as well. Deciding between Chris Conley or Demarcus Robinson isn't easy, but a lineup stacking him with Kelce or Tyreek Hill has huge upside.
I'll get into the 150-max lineup next, which offers a mixture of high upside plays and some risk as well.
Julian Edelman
Tight End Start 'Em Sit 'Em Week 16
For those fantasy football players in need of a streaming option for Week 16, you may find yourself diving deep into the waiver wire. The options aren't overly-incredible, but fortunately, there are one or two lower-owned names who have solid matchups. But from a DFS standpoint, paying up a bit at tight end probably makes more sense.
Start: Evan Engram, New York Giants at Colts
Whether Odell Beckham Jr. returns in Week 16 or not is worth monitoring, but I'm still interested in Evan Engram. As bad as Eli Manning has been at getting the ball to Sterling Shephard, he's had far more success with Engram. In turn, it's led to the talented young tight end catching 11 passes in the past two games and topping 75 yards in each.
For good measure, the Colts have allowed the most yards to opposing tight ends this (1,017) with 88 receptions and three scores. I'm not banking on Engram finding the end zone this week, but I love his potential to catch 6-8 passes and land around 80 yards again.
Sit: Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers at Jets
A struggling tight end who we know has upside, playing in a game that's meaningless and comes with a terrible matchup? I'll pass on all of that. While Jimmy Graham's 2018 season hasn't gone quite as planned, he's still flashed upside at various points this season, but this isn't a spot to target him.
The Jets have allowed just 39 receptions for 452 yards and five touchdowns on the year, so there's not much to like about this spot. Graham should just be left on the bench regardless of whether it's season-long or one-week fantasy games.
Start: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns vs. Bengals
This one is not for the faint of heart. While David Njoku has cooled off quite a bit as of late, it's worth noting that he's received 4-6 targets in each of the past four games. Although only one of those resulted in a solid showing, it came against the Browns' Week 16 opponent in the Bengals.
In that matchup, Njoku caught five passes for 63 yards and one touchdown. The Bengals are just bad against tight ends, giving up 73 receptions for 839 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. If you're in need of a tight end this week, there are far worse options than Njoku.
Additional DraftKings TE Targets Week 16
– Zach Ertz vs. Houston Texans ($5,900)
– Jared Cook vs. Denver Broncos ($5,300)
I'm hoping that Zach Ertz has low ownership after catching just three passes for 22 yards against the Los Angeles Rams last week. There's a chance some could point to that and make an argument he'll struggle with Nick Foles, but that's not the case. Ertz is still one of the best tight ends in the game and the Texans aren't good against tight ends, giving up seven touchdowns and nearly 900 yards to them this season.
Unfortunately, tight end isn't exactly great to choose from on DraftKings this week. With that said, Jared Cook's price isn't bad. We know Derek Carr loves to target his tight end early and often, and with the Broncos one of only two teams who have allowed 1,000-plus yards to tight ends, it's a great spot for Cook.
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