Getty Images Jalen Ramsey #20 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks on before the start of a game against the New Orleans Saints at TIAA Bank Field
After dominating the NFC West in 2018 with a 13-3 record, the Los Angeles Rams have stumbled out of the gate in 2019. They’ve played .500 football through Week 6 while looking mediocre on both sides of the ball en route to a 3-3 start.
After getting thrashed 20-7 at home last week by the new powerhouse in the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers, the Rams’ front office decided changes were needed.
Marcus Peters and Jalen Ramsey Trades
Boom-or-bust cornerback Marcus Peters was traded to the Baltimore Ravens, clearing money and roster space for LA to acquire arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, Jalen Ramsey. The deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars came at a high cost, as the Rams sent 2020 and 2021 first-round picks, along with a fourth-rounder in exchange for Ramsey.
As noted by Robert Duff at SportsBettingDime.com, the trade led to the Rams’ Super Bowl 54 odds improving from +2500 to +2000. Duff doesn’t see value on a Los Angeles futures bet at that price, and the math backs him up.
The Rams’ +2000 odds give them a 4.9 percent chance to win Super Bowl 54. But FootballOutsiders gives LA just a 25 percent chance to make the playoffs, while FiveThirtyEight.com has them at 27 percent. Neither site pegs their outlook at higher than a 5 percent chance to repeat as NFC West champs, which makes sense since they trail both the 49ers (5-0) and Seahawks (5-1) by multiple games. The Rams have also already lost on their home turf to San Francisco and on the road against Seattle.
Splitting the difference between Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight gives LA a 26 percent chance to grab a Wild Card spot. Then the Rams would have to, in all likelihood, win three straight road games just to reach the Super Bowl. If we generously give them a 48 percent chance to win all three, they would have roughly an 11 percent chance to win the NFC.
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Latest Super Bowl 54 Odds
Giving them a 50 percent chance to win the neutral-site Super Bowl, they would have a 5.5 percent chance to win the Lombardi Trophy, assuming they get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
But remember, they are 3-3 and already trailing five teams for the final NFC Wild Card spot, which is why their chances to even make the playoffs are only about 26 percent. When you factor that into the math above, they have about a 1.5 percent chance to be crowned kings of the NFL this season.
That number should be increased slightly based on the outside chance they still win the division title, but not by much. There’s no value at +2000 unless you think Jalen Ramsey’s addition will cure all their ills.
Duff doesn’t think so, and he’s right, since the cornerback can’t magically heal Todd Gurley’s arthritic knee, among other limitations.
Jalen Ramsey’s Contributions This Season thus Far
Jalen Ramsey played in three games this season for Jacksonville recording only eight combined tackles with the Jaguars. After missing two games earlier in the year with a back injury, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on Oct 7, 2019, that Ramsey would be meeting with a back specialist in Houston.
“I went — 51 straight games [before missing last week’s game] where I started and played the whole game,” Ramsey said on Uninterrupted’s 17Weeks podcast earlier this month. “My body was banged up, my back being extremely tight. Having back issues is something I’ve had to deal with over the course of my NFL career. At times I’ve played through extreme pain or not practiced for weeks and tried to go out there and play. It’s something I’ve dealt with.”
After being traded earlier this week, the Rams expect Ramsey to play this weekend against the Atlanta Falcons, according to NFL Networks’ Omar Ruiz.
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