Falcons vs. Panthers Prediction: Spread, Odds & Pick

Getty Kyle Allen of the Carolina Panthers

The Atlanta Falcons have won three straight games over the Carolina Panthers, but these are two very different teams in 2019 than ones that met the past two seasons. Atlanta is coming off their best performance of the season, a 26-9 victory over the New Orleans Saints which snapped a six-game losing streak. Atlanta was able to get to Drew Brees for six sacks, surpassing their sack total for the entire season. The Panthers fell painfully short to the Green Bay Packers last week in a 24-16 loss which saw Christian McCaffrey come one yard short of tying the game in the final seconds.

We break down the line and offer our best bets and predictions for this matchup between two NFC South rivals.  

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Falcons at Panthers Game Details

Date: Sunday, November 17
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
TV: FOX
Spread: Panthers -4.5
Total: 49.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


Line Movement

This line opened at Carolina -7 and has been bet all the way down to Carolina -4 in some books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action has trended towards the underdog in this game with 63% of the bets on Carolina but 56% of the money coming in on Atlanta. This indicates reverse line movement in favor of the Falcons.

The total opened at 54 and has been bet all the way down to 49.5 or even 49 at some books. The action is correlated to the line move with 59% of the bets and 63% of the money being bet on the under.


Betting Trends

  • Falcons are 3-6 ATS this season
  • Panthers are 5-4 ATS this season
  • Under is 6-3 in Falcons games this season
  • Over is 6-3 in Panthers games this season
  • Falcons are 1-4 ATS on the road this season
  • Under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings
  • The home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers


Prediction & Picks

This feels like a good sell-high spot for the Falcons as I expect a let down after the huge victory over the Saints. Carolina’s rushing attack is among the best in the league, averaging 131.4 yards per game on the ground. Christian McCaffrey is the big reason why.  The MVP hopeful has 989 yards on the ground this season with 11 rushing touchdowns. McCaffrey is also the team’s fourth-leading receiver with 396 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Falcons don’t stop the run very well, allowing 111.0 yards per game. You’re getting line value on both sides here with Atlanta coming off a win and Carolina off a loss. The home team has also dominated this series, covering 10 of the last 13 games. Take the home favorite.

PICK: Panthers -4.5 (-110)

I think this game is going to be played on the ground, in the trenches. Both offenses will look to establish the run, which should keep the clock moving. It’s also hard to fade the major steam we are seeing. This one stays under the total.

PICK: Under 49.5 (-110)


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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith