Getty Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are getting back their MVP. Patrick Mahomes returns to the lineup for Kansas City after missing the last three games with a dislocated right kneecap. Meanwhile, the Titans are still in the mix for a postseason berth. They enter Sunday two games back of the Houston Texans in the AFC South standings.
Kansas City (6-2) is receiving 83-percent of the bets in this game, according to The Action Network. In Mahomes’ absence, running back Damien Williams has found his game. Williams rushed for a career-high 125 yards in last week’s 26-23 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Tyreek Hill had six grabs for a season-high 140 yards and a score. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rushing defense, which has been gashed at times this season, held the Vikings vaunted ground attack to under 100 yards rushing last week.
Tennessee (4-5) has gotten better than expected play from Ryan Tannehill, who is completing 71.8-percent of his passes. Tannehill is starting in place of Marcus Mariota, who was benched earlier this season. If the Titans are able to control things on the ground, Derrick Henry will be a big reason why. Henry has struggled at times this season with 644 yards rushing but only 3.9 yards per carry. Wide receiver A.J. Brown has had a breakout rookie campaign with 429 yards receiving and three touchdowns.
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Game Details: Chiefs at Titans
Date: Sunday, November 9
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
TV: CBS
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Total: 49.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Betting Trends
- Chiefs are 5-4 ATS this season
- Titans are 3-5-1 ATS this season
- Over is 6-3 in Chiefs games this season
- Under is 4-5 in Titans games this season
- Chiefs are 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games
- Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
- Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings
- Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Prediction & Picks
The public money on Kansas City this week is daunting and should scare anyone off backing Mahomes as nearly a touchdown favorite on the road in his first game back. The Chiefs did a nice job stopping Dalvin Cook last week but I’m not sure they’ll have the same success with Derrick Henry this week. I expect the rest of the team to relax just a bit with Mahomes under center, and Tennessee does just enough as the home dog here to cover the number. Take the points.
PICK: Titans +5.5 (-110)
All things considered, Kansas City’s defense has held up fairly well this season, allowing just 22.7 points per game. However, I’m concerned about the physicality that The Titans offense brings to the table here. This is going to be a smashmouth football game and I expect both defenses to be worn down by the fourth quarter. The full-game over is fine here, but if you really want to be sharp wait until halftime and hopefully grab a better number.
PICK: Over 49.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith