Getty Titans RB Derrick Henry
The Tennessee Titans are coming off the bye and getting healthy as they enter a crucial divisional showdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Defensive tackle Jurrell Casey is expected to return after missing two games with a shoulder injury. It should help the Titans defense slow down Leonard Fournette, who ranks sixth in the NFL with 854 rushing yards, however, he’s collected just 63 yards on 19 carries over the past two games. Another key for Fournette and the Jags offense is the play of Nick Foles, who returned from a collarbone injury in last Sunday’s 33-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Foles put up decent numbers but still looked a little shaky in his first game back from injury. A win for Tennessee would keep their slim hopes alive. Jacksonville most likely needs to win out in order to make the postseason.
We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC South matchup between the Jaguars and Titans.
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Jaguars vs. Titans Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 24
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
TV: CBS
Spread: Titans -3.5
Total: 41.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Titans -2.5 and has been bet through the key number of 3 all the way to Titans -3.5 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action slightly favors the Titans who are receiving 67% of the bets and 53% of the money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 41 and has been bet up slightly to 41.5 at most books with 60% of the bets on the over and 51% of the money coming in on the over.
Betting Trends
- Jaguars are 4-6 SU and 5-5 ATS this season
- Titans are 5-5 SU and 4-5-1 ATS this season
- Over is 5-5 in Jaguars games this season
- Over is 5-5 in Titans games this season
- Jaguars are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season
- Titans are 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS at home this season
- Jaguars are 0-5 SU in the last 5 meetings on the road
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
The line movement was very telling for me in this game. The fact that a divisional game between two fairly evenly matched teams got through the key number of Titans -3 should raise a red flag for anyone looking to back the Jaguars. It might not be pretty, but Tennessee is 3-1 since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter. Tannehill is completing 71.4% of his passes and has exceeded expectations with his ability to lead the offense. The key in this game though comes down to stopping Derrick Henry, who has proven to be a runaway freight train at times. Henry is coming off an outstanding performance in the 35-32 win over the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago that saw him rush for 188 yards on 23 carries with two scores. The Jags have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL allowing 134.6 yards per game on the ground. I think Henry has another huge day and Tennessee covers the number as Jacksonville makes it six straight losses in Nashville. Swallow the points.
PICK: Titans -3.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith