Kent State vs. Toledo Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Getty Toledo quarterback Mitchell Guadagni

MACtion has returned. The annual midweek MAC football games feature two teams that are still in the hunt for a division title as the Golden Flashes and Rockets square off on Tuesday night at the Glass Bowl.

Kent State (3-5) is much improved under second-year head coach Sean Lewis. The Golden Flashes went 2-10 in Lewis’ debut season last fall. The 2019 campaign has been highlighted by conference victories over Ohio and Miami. It would take a few upsets along the way, but Kent State is still in the mix for a six-win season and a possible bowl appearance. The Golden Flashes have not appeared in a bowl game since 2012.  

Toledo (5-3) was the preseason favorite in the MAC West but losses to Bowling Green and Ball State have put them a game back in the standings with four games to play. A win on Tuesday would give the Rockets their 10th consecutive season of at least six victories and keep them in the hunt for a division title.

Toledo holds a 26-21 edge in the all-time series against. The Rockets have won eight out of the last nine in this series including a 56-34 win over Kent State last season.

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Game Details: Kent State at Toledo

Date: Tuesday, November 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Location: Glass Bowl (Toledo, Ohio)
Spread: Toledo -7
Total: 61.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Betting Trends

  • Kent State is 4-4 ATS this season
  • Toledo is 4-4 ATS this season
  • Under is 5-3 in Kent State games this season
  • Over is 4-4 in Toledo games this season
  • Kent State is 0-4 ATS in last 4 games against an opponent with winning home record
  • Toledo is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
  • Under is 6-0 in last 6 Toledo games on Tuesday
  • The favorite is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers

Prediction & Picks

The trends point heavily to the home team dominating this series, which sets up nicely for Toledo. The Rockets are starting to get cooking on offense and are second in the conference, averaging 445 total yards per game. Senior quarterback Mitchell Guadagni is questionable for the game with an injured throwing shoulder. If Guadagni is unable to go, Eli Peters will start instead. Peters shined off the bench in Toledo’s last game, throwing two touchdowns in the 37-34 overtime win over Eastern Michigan two weeks ago.  Even with the quarterback uncertainty, I can’t back the Golden Flashes in this spot.

PICK: Toledo -7 (-110)

Both defenses have struggled mightily this season and are allowing the most yards per game in the conference this season. Toledo has slightly better in the red zone with Kent State allowing 30.8 points per game compared to just 28.0 for the Rockets. I expect Toledo to control this game and hold down Kent State, but a late score pushes this one over the number.

PICK: Over  61.5 (-110)

The Rockets are only averaging 28.4 points per game this season, but they dropped 56 on Kent State the last time these two teams met. The oddsmakers believe Toledo will eclipse their season average by a touchdown here, and who am I to say they are wrong. Jump on the Rockets’ team total over.

PICK: Toledo Team Total Over 34 (-115)

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith

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