Lions vs. Raiders Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Matthew Stafford

Getty Matthew Stafford shows frustration after a penalty.

The Lions were able to snap their three-game losing streak last Sunday, holding on to beat the New York Giants 31-26. Meanwhile, the Raiders could not hold on late in Houston, as the heroics of Deshaun Watson proved to be too much in a 27-24 defeat to the Texans.

Detroit (3-3-1) opened as a pick earlier this week but injury concerns have pushed this line all the way down to +3 at some books in Las Vegas, according to The Lions secondary will be thin on Sunday with starting safety Tracy Walker out with a right knee injury.  According to the team’s injury report, six players are listed as questionable for the game including offensive lineman Graham Glasgow and defensive lineman Mike Daniels, who are both not expected to suit up

Oakland (3-4) is receiving 64-percent of the handle in this game,  according to The Action Network. The Raiders have also received only 51% of the bets, but the line has moved steadily in their favor all week, which is a strong bullish indicator that sharps are on the home team. Jon Gruden’s squad has overachieved a bit this season and it seems like the smart money is trending in their direction this Sunday.

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Game Details: Lions at Raiders

Date: Sunday, November 3
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: RingCentral Coliseum (Oakland, California)
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Total: 50.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Betting Trends

  • Lions are 4-3 ATS this season
  • Raiders is 4-3 ATS this season
  • Over is 5-2 in Lions games this season
  • Over is 4-3 in Raiders games this season
  • Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
  • Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss
  • Lions are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers

Prediction & Picks

I’ve been impressed by the Raiders this season. Sure, they’ve looked bad against some of the best teams in the NFL (Chiefs, Packers, Vikings) but they also have registered upset wins over the Bears, Colts, and Broncos. Meanwhile, the line movement in this game has been stark.  The spread has tilted three points in favor of Oakland as the injuries continue to pile up for Detroit. I’m worried about Detroit’s ability to stop the run and Josh Jacobs, who is having a breakout campaign as a rookie. The Lions rank 26th in the NFL in rushing defense allowing 130.7 yards per game on the ground. Jacobs has churned out 620 yards in his rookie campaign and is averaging 5.0 per tote. Look for Oakland to control the trenches, and get back to .500 on the season.

PICK: Raiders -2.5 (-115)

The total seems way too low in this game. If you combine the two scoring defenses for Detroit and Oakland this season they are allowing on average a combined 54.0 points per game this season. That’s over a field goal more than what the total is for the game. Seems like simple math to me right? Play the over.

PICK: Over 50.5 (-110)

The Raiders rank 30th in the NFL in passing defense allowing 285.3 yards per game through the air. Assuming the Lions fall behind in this game, which I expect they will, Matthew Stafford will be forced to chuck it up in the second half. Stafford has thrown for at least 340 yards in each of his last two games. Eclipsing the 291-mark should be no issues here.

PICK: Matthew Stafford Over 290.5 Passing Yards (-134)

READ NEXTBrowns vs. Broncos Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith

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