Oregon vs. USC Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

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Getty Quarterback Justin Herbert leads Oregon against Auburn.

The Ducks could be the hottest team in the country, but the action is trending towards the Trojans in a matchup that could be an early preview of the Pac 12 Championship game.

Oregon (7-1) opened as a seven-point favorite but the line has decreased steadily all week long. Most of the books in Las Vegas are currently offering the Ducks between a three and four-point favorite.  

Justin Herbert has been solid but has not quite lived up to the Heisman hype for Oregon. The senior QB is completing 71.7 percent of his passes and has yet to throw an interception on the road this season. He will need to stay turnover-free in a tough environment on Saturday night.

USC (5-3) has already upset a top-25 opponent at the Coliseum this season, beating ninth-ranked Utah 30-23 back in September. The Trojans are receiving about 44-percent of the bets, according to The Action Network.

Kedon Slovis has been a great find for the Trojans. Since starting QB JT Daniels went down with an injury in the season opener against Fresno State, Slovis has filled the void, throwing for 1,625 yards and 13 touchdowns. It also helps to have the weapons USC does, with three receivers that have at least 40 catches this season. The talented group is led by senior Michael Pittman Jr. who is averaging 15.1 yards per catch this year with a team-high seven touchdowns.

If Oregon loses, they are likely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.

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Game Details: #6 Oregon vs. #8 USC

Date: Saturday, November 2
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location:  Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California)
Spread: Oregon -4
Total: 62

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 4-4 ATS this season
  • USC is 4-4 ATS this season
  • Oregon is 6-13-1 ATS in last 20 games on the road
  • USC is 5-1 ATS in last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings
  • The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers

Prediction & Picks

Oregon has won seven straight ahead of this tough road matchup against the Trojans. The Ducks have also won four of six against USC. So it’s clear to me which team is hotter. This could be the last obstacle for Oregon to steamroll into the Pac 12 championship game and possibly to the CFP if they can also get a little help. But I’m not sure Mario Cristobal is ready for the bright lights. The last time Cristobal and the Ducks were on the national stage, they coughed up a late lead to Auburn in the season opener and were outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter. This feels like another Hollywood moment for Oregon, and I fear they aren’t ready to fly.

PICK: USC +4 (-110)

I don’t like this play as much as I like the underdog, but my gut tells me that if USC wins, it’s because they are able to move the ball through the air. Oregon’s defense ranks 48th in the NCAA in passing yards allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Trojans rank 85th in pass defense so Herbert should be able to find some success as well against the USC secondary.

PICK: Over 62 (-110)

READ NEXTFlorida vs. Georgia Prediction: Fade the Public Underdog

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith

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