Getty Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers runs with the ball against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on November 24, 2019 in Santa Clara, California.
Aaron Rodgers might not believe in trap games, but the Green Bay Packers could certainly be walking into one when they kick off against the two-win New York Giants this Sunday afternoon in New Jersey.
The Packers (8-3) are looking to recover from last Sunday night’s nasty road loss to the San Francisco 49ers with plenty reason to still believe they can make a deep playoff run, but an excessive amount of slippage could see their matchup with the Giants (2-9) turn from tune-up game into their third straight road loss if problems persist.
Meanwhile, the Giants are looking to end a seven-game losing streak that features losses to all three of the other NFC North teams with a short-handed roster missing several key starters.
Here is a closer look at the two NFC teams with background, stats and advice on the Week 13 matchup.
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Packers vs. Giants Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 1
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
TV: FOX
Spread: Packers -6
Total: 44.5
*All odds are courtesy of OddsShark.
Line Movement
This line has shrunk a few points throughout the week, but none of the popular books consider the Packers any worse than 5.5-point favorites after the Giants opened 7.5-point underdogs, according to VegasInsider.com. That said, bettors are heavily favoring the Packers with 89 percent of public bets picking Rodgers and the Packers to win, according to ActionNetwork.com.
The total has climbed since opening at 41, but popular books are leaning toward the under, despite 74 percent of public bets taking the over.
Betting Trends
- Green Bay is 8-3 SU in their last 11 games
- Green Bay is 4-11 SU in their last 15 road games
- N.Y. Giants are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
- N.Y. Giants are 1-6 ATS in last 7 home games
- N.Y. Giants are 3-6 ATS in last 9 home games against Green Bay
- Total has gone OVER in 8 of last 12 games between two teams
*All trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Analysis & Picks
While execution has been one of the buzz words floating around the Packers’ locker room since they lost 37-8 to the Niners in prime time, head coach Matt LaFleur also acknowledged the team’s need to get star running back Aaron Jones more involved after his passing attention has declined in recent weeks.
Jones leads the team’s rushing attack with 627 yards and 11 touchdowns, but he has also been effective in the passing game with 354 receiving yards and three touchdown catches that helped him lead the NFL in scoring for a number of weeks. And yet, the Packers have targetted him just once in the passing game over their last two games while giving a heavier priority to now-healthy star wideout Davante Adams.
Getting Jones more involved will be essential to the Packers’ long-term success, which makes this week’s trip to face the Giants an optimal time to retool the offensive plan and reignite Jones’ dominant production that has helped deliver multiple Green Bay wins this season.
The Giants aren’t the strongest against the run, but their bigger problem has emerged in the secondary with star safety Jabrill Peppers sidelined with a back injury he suffered last week against the Chicago Bears. Despite coming off one of his worst performances to date, Rodgers is still an elite passer and will likely spread the ball out more after minimal success prioritizing Adams over his other pass-catchers.
The Giants defense will need strong play from linebackers Alec Ogletree, David Mayo and Markus Golden to prevent the Packers from establishing their twin-headed rushing attack, which also features versatile rusher Jamaal Williams in a near-equal capacity.
Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones will also have to figure out a way to make do without his top two tight ends and one of his best receivers, as Evan Ingram, Rhett Ellison and Golden Tate have all been ruled out for Sunday’s game. Star rusher Saquon Barkley can be expected to have a larger role against a Packers defense that has allowed 63 points combined in their last two road losses.
Pick: Packers -6
Over-under: Over 44.5
Prediction: Packers 35, Giants 17
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