Getty J.T. Gray #48 of the New Orleans Saints reacts following the play during the second half of a game against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 28, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia.
The New Orleans Saints became the first NFL team this season to secure a spot in the playoffs last Thursday when they clinched the NFC South title for a third straight year, but a home game against a fellow contender offers them a chance to solidify themselves as the best in the NFC.
The Saints (10-2) have won nine of their last 10 games, including a current three-game streak, and would move into sole possession of the No. 1 overall playoff seed in the NFC with a strong showing at home against San Francisco. Meanwhile, the 49ers (10-2) are looking to steady the ship after getting tagged for two losses in their last four games and have just as much on the line in regards to their postseason future.
Here’s a closer look at the matchup between two of this year’s top playoff contenders along with background, stats and advice on their Week 14 showdown.
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49ers vs. Saints Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 8
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
TV: FOX
Spread: Saints -2
Total: 44.5
*All odds are courtesy of OddsShark.
Line Movement
An opening line had the Saints as 3.5-point favorites, but it didn’t take long for things to tip closer in favor of the 49ers across popular books, according to VegasInsider.com. Bettors are even more confident in the underdogs with 64 percent of public bets taking the 49ers, according to ActionNetwork.com.
The total, on the other hand, has not budged in the majority of books. The trends are slightly in favor of a high-scoring matchup with 56 percent of public bets taking the over.
Betting Trends
- Total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 6 games
- San Francisco is 10-2 SU this season
- New Orleans is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
- New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 home games
- San Francisco is 3-11 SU in its last 11 games against New Orleans
- Total has gone OVER in 5 of the last 6 matchups between the two
*All trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Analysis & Picks
The Saints offense hasn’t let up since dropping Dree Brees’ comeback game in Week 10 at home against Atlanta, getting payback against the Falcons on the road last week for the division clincher. The Niners’ league-leading defense, though, will present the Saints with their greatest challenge yet after facing average-at-best defenses in five consecutive games.
Not to say the Saints haven’t played well against strong defenses, such as when they put up 36 points against the Chicago Bears in Week 7. The Niners, though, are holding opposing teams to just 134.3 passing yards per game with an aggressive defensive line that also rates among the best in sacks (45) on the season. San Francisco will also have the benefit of a healthy Richard Sherman in the secondary after a knee issue limited him in practice earlier this week.
The Saints are no slouches on defense, either, with a noted strength against opposing rushers. They are among just three teams allowing fewer than 90 rushing yards per game, which could present problems for a Niners offense that ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards.
Given that, the matchup could boil down to a showdown between quarterbacks. The Saints’ system has flowed better than most with two different passers this season, which is as much a testament to the abilities of wideouts Michael Thomas (110 catches, 1,290 yards) as it is to either Brees or Teddy Bridgewater. Niners quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo may not match Brees’ wealth of experience, but San Francisco has given him the keys and supplied him with enough quality passing targets to get the job done.
Pick: Saints -2
Over-under: Over
Prediction: Saints 27, 49ers 24
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