The Denver Broncos may have found themselves a starting quarterback. Drew Lock continues to shine under center but faces another stiff test on Sunday in a tough atmosphere against the Kansas City Chiefs. Lock improved to 2-0 as a starter and threw for 309 yards with three touchdowns in Denver’s 38-24 win over the Texans last Sunday. Lock is completing 72.7% of his passes since taking over as the starter under center two weeks ago.
The Chiefs have won three straight and are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Patriots. Kansas City’s defense has been a big reason for the winning streak as they held New England to just 278 yards last Sunday.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Chiefs an 87.1% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 15
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
Spread: Chiefs -10
This line opened at Chiefs -11.5 and has been bet down slightly to Chiefs -10 at some books despite the majority of the bets and money coming in on the Broncos. This indicates a fairly significant reverse line move favoring Denver
- Broncos are 5-8 SU and 8-5 ATS this season
- Chiefs are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS this season
- Over is 7-6 in Broncos games this season
- Under is 7-6 in Chiefs games this season
Analysis & Picks
I think this could be a letdown spot for KC. Coming off a huge road win over the Patriots last Sunday where they also clinched the AFC West title, I can see the Chiefs letting their foot off the gas pedal a bit against the Broncos. Kansas City won this matchup 30-6 earlier this season on a Thursday night in Denver. The game was incredibly lopsided despite Patrick Mahomes suffering a knee injury that would keep him sidelined for several weeks. Both teams have been profitable against the number this season and share identical 8-5 ATS records. That mark is somewhat surprising for Denver considering their 5-8 record overall. It means the books have been overlooking the Broncos consistently this season and I think that will be the case on Sunday as well. Injuries along the offensive line do concern me a bit for Denver as tackle Ja’Wuan James (knee) and guard Ron Leary (concussion) will both not play. Tight end Noah Fant is also questionable with a foot/hip injury. Fant’s status could tip the scales here as he posted big numbers last week with 113 yards receiving and a touchdown in the win over the Texans. As long as Lock continues to look strong in the pocket, I think Denver’s offense has enough in the tank to cover the number against the Chiefs.
PICK: Broncos +10
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith