Dolphins vs. Giants Prediction: Eli Manning’s Final Home Game for New York?

Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning returned to action on Monday night against the Philadelphia Eagles.

It could be the final home game in the legendary career of Eli Manning as the New York Giants host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Met Life Stadium. Eli made his return to the starting lineup last week and threw a pair of touchdown passes in the first half of New York’s 23-17 overtime loss to the Eagles. Manning finished the game with 203 yards passing and more importantly, did not turn the football over. The Dolphins also fell short last week, losing 22-21 to the New York Jets thanks to a last-second field goal by Sam Ficken. It will be Miami’s second consecutive game at Met Life Stadium.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Giants a 63.2% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s matchup between the Dolphins and Giants.

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Dolphins vs. Giants Game Details

Date: Sunday, December 15
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: Met Life Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
Spread: Giants -3
Total: 45.5

*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network

Line Movement

This line opened at Giants -3.5 and has been bet down slightly to Giants -3 with the majority of the bets and money coming in on the Dolphins. This line is correlated with the action and is moving with the market.

Betting Trends

  • Dolphins are 3-10 SU and 7-6 ATS this season
  • Giants are 2-11 SU and 5-8 ATS this season
  • Under is 7-6 in Dolphins games this season
  • Over is 7-6 in Giants games this season

Analysis & Picks

I’m expecting big things from both offenses this week. After playing low-scoring games against divisional opponents a week ago, it feels like a good spot for some points on Sunday at Met Life Stadium. Both defenses are ranked in the bottom five DVOA and neither secondary has played well this season. Wide receiver Darius Slayton showed a strong connection with Eli Manning last week hauling in two long scoring grabs against the Eagles on Monday. The rookie from Auburn is second on the team with 42 receptions and leads the squad with 659 yards receiving and seven touchdown catches this season. It’s been a struggle for second-year running back Saquon Barkley who has gone seven straight games without rushing for 100 yards and is lacks burst since returning from a high ankle sprain. However, that streak could end against the Dolphins 30th ranked run defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown at least one interception in each of his last three games and is a touchdown or pick-six waiting to happen on every throw. It appears that wide receivers DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns will all suit up in the game despite battling injuries, so Miami is getting healthier on the outside and should have success against a week Giants secondary. I like the over here, but make sure to check the weather report before locking in your bet as there could be windy and rainy conditions at Met Life Stadium on Sunday which could affect the total.

PICK: Over 45.5

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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith