Getty Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago Bears face the Minnesota Vikings Sunday. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
The storylines surrounding this one are ample: Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy will face his former mentor in Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid, Kansas City just picked up veteran linebacker Terrell Suggs, while injured defensive end Akiem Hicks will not play after practicing in full throughout the week. And taking center stage of it all will be the 2017 quarterback class: No 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky will face No. 10 overall pick Patrick Mahomes for the very first time.
The Bears were eliminated from the playoffs last week, while Kansas City will be playing for favorable playoff seeding in the AFC. But who will have the edge in this one? Here’s a game preview followed by betting trends and my prediction.
Bears
With two games left in what has been a disappointing season for the Bears, this game will be a huge opportunity for struggling quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to show why he should be the guy in Chicago. Trubisky will be facing a Kansas City defense that has been much better at defending the run than they have the pass, so he will have to be judicious with his passes. The Chiefs are giving up 131.6 yards a game, so Nagy could lean heavily on running back David Montgomery in this one.
On defense, the Bears remain a top 10 unit, but they will be without defensive lineman Akiem Hicks, who gritted it out last week against Green Bay despite being in obvious pain. That was his first game back after a two month stint on injured reserve, and he still made a huge impact. As has been the case all season, he will be missed in this game.
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes brings an offense into Soldier Field that is averaging 28.1 points a game. He will face a tough test against Khalil Mack and company, who have allowed under 18 points per contest. The Bears defense has also given up huge back-breaking drives of late, including one in the third quarter against Green Bay last week, so Mahomes will have his chances.
This game could very well come down to how well Andy Reid knows his former pupil and his tendencies. Nagy’s play-calling has come under scrutiny in his second season, and while he has managed to keep his team together throughout a tumultuous season, he’s still much more inexperienced than his mentor. And that could make all the difference here.
Betting Line, Odds, Trends & Pick
*NOTE: All data, numbers, odds and trends listed here are courtesy of Odds Shark.
Spread: Bears +6
Over/Under: 44.5
Odds Shark have the Chiefs winning the game by a projected score of 22-20, with the Bears covering the spread and the total score going under 44.5 points.
Here are some trends to consider surrounding this game:
- Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games.
- The Chiefs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
- Kansas City is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
- Chicago is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Bears are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago’s last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago’s last 6 games against Kansas City.
The betting line for this one hasn’t changed much over the week. Bovada had the line starting out at +5 (-110) with an over/under of +45 (-110). After gradually creeping up all week, Bovada currently has the line at +6.5 (-115) and an over/under of +44.5 (-110).
Final Prediction: The Bears should keep this one interesting, with it being their final home game at Soldier Field this season. I’m also with Odds Shark on the under projection, and if David Montgomery can get heavily involved, this one could be close. Still, Mahomes and Reid should win out over Trubisky and Nagy.
Chiefs 20, Bears 17