Philadelphia (8-7) is one win away from a remarkable and improbable NFC East title. The Eagles have won three straight since an embarrassing 37-31 loss to the Dolphins which sunk Philly to a 5-7 record and very little hope for the postseason. The Eagles will be without two key weapons on offense, as tight end Zach Ertz (ribs/back) and wide receiver Nelson Agholor (knee) are listed as out on the team’s injury report. Philadelphia can still back into the postseason if they lose, but must then hope the Redskins beat the Cowboys.
New York (4-11) has experienced a lost season in Pat Shurmur‘s second year as head coach. Shurmur is now 9-22 since taking the helm. The Giants defense is the main culprit this season, as they rank near the bottom of the league in almost every major statistical category. Saquon Barkley finally re-emerged in last Sunday’s 41-35 overtime win over the Redskins rushing for a career-high 189 yards rushing and a franchise-best 279 yards from scrimmage.
ESPN’s FPI gives Philadelphia a 70.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s NFC East matchup between the Eagles and Giants.
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Eagles vs. Giants Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 29
Time: 4:25 pm
Location: Met Life Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
Spread: Eagles -4
This line opened at Eagles -5 and has been bet down to Eagles -3.5 at some books despite the slight majority of the bets and money coming in on Philadelphia. This favors a slight reverse line move favoring the Giants.
- Eagles are 8-7 SU and 6-9 ATS this season
- Giants are 4-11 SU and 7-8 ATS this season
- Under is 8-7 in Eagles games this season
- Over is 9-6 in Giants games this season
Analysis & Picks
The Eagles have owned this series of late, winning six straight and 11 of the last 12 games against the Giants. The line movement is a bit concerning, as it has continuously drifted towards New York throughout the week. The movement is even more concerning if you consider that the Eagles are getting back a key offensive weapon, with the return of running back Jordan Howard, who has not played since Week 9 because of a stinger.
Regardless of line movement, I still like the Eagles to get the job done, but since the spread is longer than what I’m willing to lay, we are going to play an exotic. The “Same Game Parlay” on FanDuel is an intriguing option here as I can play the Eagles on the ML and the under and get almost 2-to-1 for my money. The total is very high in this game considering the Eagles lack of weapons on the outside and the intensity level I expect both defenses to bring considering it is a divisional affair. If you want to just play the under, that’s fine too, but this is an opportunity to get a little more bang for your buck if you’re willing to risk it.
PICK: Eagles ML / Under 45.5 parlay (+192)
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith