ESPN’s FPI gives Kansas City a 64.8% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best prop bets and analysis for Super Bowl LIV between the 49ers and Chiefs.
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49ers vs. Chiefs Game Details
Date: Sunday, February 2
Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Passing Yards Prop
Jimmy Garoppolo is not getting enough respect in this matchup. The 49ers quarterback is 23-5 straight up and 24-4 ATS in his career. He has been incredibly efficient and is fourth in the NFL with 8.3 yards per attempt. The San Francisco offense will need to score some points in this game if they want to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the high-octane Chiefs.
PICK: Jimmy Garoppolo over 242.5 passing yards -112
Rushing Yards Prop
Raheem Mostert rushed for a career-high 220 yards and four touchdowns in the NFC Championship against the Packers. It was a career-defining performance for the fifth-year pro who had received only 41 career carries entering this season. Tevin Coleman appears to be healthy after a scary shoulder injury against the Packers. The Chiefs defense held Derrick Henry to just 69 yards rushing in the AFC Championship Game and will be keying in on the talented 49ers rushing attack. This is a good spot to fade Mostert’s inflated number.
PICK: Raheem Mostert under 75.5 rush yards -112
Receiving Yards Prop
The Chiefs defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points against tight ends this season. George Kittle dominated the NFL this season and racked up 1,053 receiving yards in just 14 games. The 49ers have not needed to throw the ball much in the playoffs, but that will not be the case on Sunday. When San Francisco has revved up the passing offense, Kittle has taken center stage, averaging 99.6 yards over the final three weeks of the regular season.
PICK: George Kittle over 74.5 receiving yards -112
Bill Vinovich and his crew have called the fewest penalties in the NFL this season. The 49ers and Chiefs are averaging a combined 12.9 penalties this season. I expect Vinovich and his crew to keep the flags to a minimum.
PICK: Total Penalties Under 12.5 -155
This game is a true toss-up with the spread opening as a pick-em on a neutral field. The oddsmakers believe this will be a back and forth game and this prop is a perfect indicator of that playing out. Both teams will exchange points early.
PICK: Game Tied After First Score Yes -140
Emmanuel Sanders is the only player on the San Francisco 49ers offense with Super Bowl experience. Sanders was a rookie on the Pittsburgh Steelers when they beat Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV. Sanders will find his way into the end zone in his second go-around on Super Sunday.
PICK: Emmanuel Sanders Anytime TD +250
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