Getty Matthew Ioannidis #98 of the Washington Redskins sacks Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers in the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field on December 08, 2019 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
The Green Bay Packers seem determined to change up their approach on offense next season, and it could mean less of quarterback Aaron Rodgers in 2020.
An analysis from Bleacher Report predicts Rodgers’ impact on the offense will decrease during the 2020 season with the Packers expected to lean more heavily on their run game. No new wide receivers were added during the most recent NFL draft, while the Packers also took a box-blasting rusher and tight end/fullback hybrid with two of their top three picks.
As such, B/R predicts Rodgers will go 325-of-506 passing with 3,745 yards, 25 touchdowns and four interceptions in 2020 with fewer pass attempts, yards and touchdowns.
While in contact with an agent of a wide receiver on the open market, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel‘s Jim Owczarski confirmed that the Packers would lean heavily on their ground game for the upcoming campaign.
With Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and Dillon in the fold, Rodgers will likely see a drop-off in pass attempts, which lowers the ceiling of his passing productivity. And if Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Equanimeous St. Brown and Allen Lazard struggle to take a significant step forward in their development, Davante Adams would be the only reliable pass-catcher in the offense.
Jace Sternberger, who played 60 offensive snaps and landed on injured reserve with an ankle injury last year, is the front-runner to replace Jimmy Graham at tight end, per The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman.
With 51 touchdown passes and only six interceptions over the last two seasons, Rodgers is still a top quarterback, but the Packers did little to upgrade his supporting cast, and the offense has legitimate question marks at wide receiver and tight end.
Rodgers finished the 2019 season with more than 4,000 yards for the eighth time in his career and tied for an NFL-low four interceptions, but his completion percentage has declined steadily over his past four seasons — from 65.7 percent in 2016 to 62.0 in 2019 — along with his similar drops in his quarterback rating and passing attempts.
The Packers also made it clear with their 2020 draft decisions that they are actively planning for their future without Rodgers, neglecting presumed needs at wide receiver and moving up in the first round to select Utah State quarterback Jordan Love. How quickly change could come, though, might depend on how well Rodgers plays over the next few seasons.
Rodgers Can Control His Destiny . . . to a Point
Rodgers isn’t going anywhere immediately, let’s make that perfectly clear. Barring some sort of injury, Rodgers is going to be the Packers’ starting quarterback for the 2020 season and almost certainly the 2021 season. Things get a little tricky after that, though.
Rodgers’ current contract doesn’t expire until the 2024 offseason, but there is a potential out for the Packers after two more seasons that would allow them to move on from Rodgers and save a boatload of cash if they felt confident enough in Love. It would seem sensible for the Packers to get the most out of Love while he is under his rookie contract, which would mean promoting him to the helm sooner rather than later.
At the same time, if Rodgers comes out in 2020 playing his best football in years and maintains his status as one of the game’s elite quarterbacks, the Packers might find their hands tied — especially if he helps bring them another championship.
Rodgers reiterated his desire to finish his career with the Packers during a conference call last Friday, but he explained how certain factors are now no longer within his control regarding his future. He still feels good, staying on track for playing into his 40s, but such ambitions mean considering the possibility of finishing his career elsewhere.
“That obviously is something that’s very important to me,” Rodgers said of retiring with the Packers. “But I think it’s definitely telling at this point that it’s truly something that’s out of my control. What I can control is how I play and making that decision at some point a very hard one. You know, if I were to retire in the organization’s timetable, then it’s an easy decision. But if there comes a time where I feel like I can still play at a high level and my body feels great, you know, then there’s other guys that have gone on and played elsewhere.”
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