The market has begun to price in what could become the outcome of LSU’s potential standoff with the SEC.
As soon as news broke that the SEC was moving to remove the LSU Tigers from the conference amid rule violations, oddsmakers began determining what could be LSU’s next steps.
The folks at BetOnline Sports & Casino have figured out the probabilities of what could happen. And they might not necessarily be the prettiest for Tigers fans.
The current odds show the SEC WILL NOT get the two-thirds needed to boot LSU from the conference. The “No” odds stand at -700. In contrast, the “Yes” odds sit at +400. Judging from the market reaction alone, it looks like the SEC will choose to keep the Louisiana program in the conference.
But should the two-thirds majority prevail, the market shows that LSU could become an independent program. That possibility sits at -200 odds at the moment. However, the odds showing that the Tigers could join another conference lie at +150.
And that’s where things get interesting. Here’s a look at the odds for top five conferences the Tigers could join:
- Big 12 +125
- Big Ten +150
- ACC +400
- Pac-12 +650
- AAC +1200
It seems the Big 12 and the Big Ten would be the likeliest destinations. Those possibilities will be determined following the actual vote itself.
As for the matter in question, here’s what the market thinks:
Will former NHL players play in game for LSU during 2026 regular season?
- Yes +600
- No -1,500
So, it seems LSU might end up sidestepping the entire issue, at least that’s what the market believes.
LSU and the SEC Have Reached a Breaking Point
This situation has gone well beyond a disagreement over roster rules. The SEC has now amended its federal lawsuit against LSU, Lane Kiffin and university officials to seek the legal authority to expel LSU from the conference. The SEC argues that LSU’s handling of former NFL players Dae’Quan Wright and Zxavian Harris represents a serious violation of conference rules and a broader lack of institutional control.
The controversy began after both players, who previously signed NFL contracts, sought to return to college football. A Louisiana judge granted a preliminary injunction allowing them to pursue eligibility, putting LSU directly at odds with the SEC. LSU ultimately left both players off its roster for the season opener against Clemson, but that did not end the dispute.
Now, SEC presidents and chancellors are scheduled to vote Sept. 10, with a two-thirds majority required to remove LSU. For the Tigers, this is no longer simply about two players. It is about whether LSU is willing to challenge the conference’s authority—and how far the SEC is willing to go to defend it.
Tigers Would Pay a Huge Price for Independence
Even if LSU believes it is right, becoming an independent would be an enormous gamble. The Tigers would no longer have the SEC’s conference structure behind them, and that could create problems far beyond scheduling.
Most importantly, LSU would lose the advantages that come with competing in the SEC for a potential College Football Playoff spot. An independent program can still make the CFP, so LSU would not technically be shut out. But without a conference championship or the automatic qualification opportunities available under the playoff format, the Tigers could have a much narrower margin for error.
That could also become a recruiting problem. LSU has built its program around being one of the premier destinations in the SEC. Telling a five-star recruit that the Tigers are no longer part of college football’s most powerful conference is not exactly an easy sales pitch.
That’s why LSU may ultimately decide that fighting the SEC isn’t worth the cost. The Tigers already kept Wright and Harris off the roster once. If the choice is compliance or losing the SEC, LSU may decide to step back before this gets even more expensive.
LSU Could Make This Decision After SEC Vote, Odds Show