All signs point to Indiana defeating Miami in the College Football Playoff national championship on Monday, but one football legend is urging caution before locking in the favorite.
As of Friday, Indiana is an 11.1-point favorite over Miami, a line that has risen from 9.5 points. The Hoosiers, led by head coach Curt Cignetti and quarterback Fernando Mendoza, have seized momentum throughout the postseason and captured the attention of the college football world.
Mendoza has already secured the Heisman Trophy, but recent history serves as a reminder that heavy favorites do not always deliver. Texas quarterback Arch Manning opened the season as the least statistically proven Heisman favorite of all time and never came particularly close to winning the award.
Defending national champion Ohio State spent much of the season ranked No. 1, yet there was a growing sense that this year’s race was different. Indiana — which entered the season as the losingest major program in college football history — finished as the only undefeated team at 13-0.
GettyATLANTA, GEORGIA – JANUARY 09: Fernando Mendoza #15 of the Indiana Hoosiers celebrates a touchdown pass against the Oregon Ducks during the second quarter in the 2025 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on January 09, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Cris Carter Warns Bettors Not to Overlook Miami
Former Ohio State standout and NFL Hall of Famer Cris Carter believes many bettors could be in for a rude awakening. Carter, now the executive director of player engagement at Florida Atlantic University, shared his perspective while speaking with Heavy.com via Casino.org, which helps find Kalshi promo codes.
“I think 80% of the public money is on Indiana,” Carter said. “I’ve watched Indiana very close. Their style and approach is definitely going to change college football. I think they have 47 players with at least four years of experience, 40 players 24 years of age, eight players 26 years of age.”
Carter acknowledges Indiana’s experience and cohesion, but he believes the matchup itself favors Miami.
GettySIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA – SEPTEMBER 13: Former NFL Player and Pro Football Hall Of Fame member Cris Carter looks on during the second round of the Sanford International 2025 at Minnehaha Country Club on September 13, 2025 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. (Photo by Steven Garcia/Getty Images)
Why Carter Believes the Hurricanes Are Poised for the Upset
According to Carter, if there is any coach capable of matching Cignetti’s approach, it is Miami head coach Mario Cristobal.
“Now, Miami is very talented with the pressure they can put on the interior of the offense. To me, Mendoza is going to be harassed more than any other game besides the Ohio State game, which held them to a season-low of 13 points,” Carter said.
“But, Miami, what they are going to provide on the backend, I’m going with the upset in this one. I just don’t see Indiana as a 9.5 point favorite and Miami’s playing a home game.”
Monday night’s championship will be played at Hard Rock Stadium, the Hurricanes’ home field. Adding another layer of intrigue, Mendoza is a Miami native, setting the stage for a compelling homecoming on college football’s biggest stage.
“It’s going to be a beautiful game,” Carter said. “Can’t wait to see it.”
Regardless of the outcome, the matchup represents a clear turning point for college football. The traditional ruling class appears unsettled, and either a former powerhouse from the 1980s and early 2000s in Miami — or a program that has never held power status in Indiana — will be crowned national champion.
Cris Carter on Why Miami is Going to Upset Indiana in National Championship