The latest round of Heisman Trophy odds has seen a massive shift over the last couple of days. That shift has seen a once-lock shoved down the trough as a new contender emerges.
That new contender is Darian Mensah of Miami.
Mensah exploded to the top of the Heisman Trophy conversation following an outstanding performance in his debut on Friday night. The Hurricanes torched Stanford 45-6, with Mensah tossing for 27 of 30 and 401 yards.
According to the most recent lines at BetOnline Sports & Casino, Mensah rushed to the top of the pack, landing 6/1 odds, bumping previous favorite CJ Carr of Notre Dame down to second place with 9/1 odds.
Meanwhile, Arch Manning of Texas now sits third with 11/1 odds. Here’s a look at the top five Heisman Trophy odds:
- Darian Mensah MIA FL 6/1
- CJ Carr ND 9/1
- Arch Manning TEX 11/1
- Dante Moore ORE 11/1
- Julian Sayin OSU 14/1
Mensah’s teammate, Malachi Toney, has also seen his stock surge. Following his dominant performance against Stanford, Toney’s Heisman Trophy odds spiked to 16/1.
And yes, both Mensah and Toney’s odds are an overreaction. While their debut showings this season leave little doubt as to their talent, it will take more than one game to convince Heisman voters that Mensah, or Toney, for that matter, should unseat Carr as the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner.
Mensah Could Give Carr a Run for His Money
The latest Heisman Trophy Odds might be overreacting to Darian Mensah’s incredible debut, but that doesn’t mean Miami’s quarterback should be dismissed.
Mensah was spectacular against Stanford, planting his flag in the 2026 Heisman Trophy race. However, nobody should expect Mensah to throw for 400 yards every Saturday.
But he doesn’t need to.
If Mensah can string together several strong performances, the Heisman conversation will become very real. Miami already has plenty of national attention after reaching the College Football Playoff championship game last season, and another huge season could put Mensah at the center of it.
Having Malachi Toney certainly won’t hurt, either. Toney broke Miami’s single-game receiving record with 234 yards and three touchdowns against Stanford.
If Mensah keeps putting up big numbers and the Hurricanes keep winning, voters will have a reason to take him seriously.
That’s why the current Heisman Trophy Odds shouldn’t be completely dismissed.
Carr Will Ultimately Take Home the Hardware Regardless of Heisman Trophy Odds
Still, there’s a reason CJ Carr entered the season as the favorite, and one spectacular game from Mensah isn’t enough to change that.
Carr has something Mensah doesn’t have yet: an established track record at Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish quarterback already showed last season that he can handle the pressure that comes with playing for one of the country’s biggest programs. Now he enters 2026 with expectations that are considerably higher, and that experience could prove extremely valuable once the season gets into November.
That’s something that Heisman Trophy odds should eventually reflect.
Voters aren’t simply looking for the quarterback with the best individual statistics. Team success matters, and Notre Dame has the kind of national profile that can amplify everything Carr does.
The latest Heisman Trophy Odds may have Mensah at 6/1 and Carr at 9/1, but the market can change quickly. Mensah has earned his place in the conversation. He hasn’t earned the trophy yet.
If Notre Dame has the season many expect and Carr delivers another strong campaign, the award should ultimately be his to lose.
Mensah might have made this race more interesting.
But Carr remains the safer bet to finish on top.
Heisman Trophy Odds Shift Massively As Market Overreacts