Just after the 2026 NFL Draft concluded, most couldn’t wait to build their 2027 mock drafts. And just like last year, atop most of those was Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning.
Manning simply can’t escape the hype and weight that his last name carries. That’s the unfortunate side effect of being part of a gifted athletic family, especially one with two uncles who are a combined four-time Super Bowl champions.
Manning will be entering just his second season as a full-time starter and his fourth year overall after redshirting his freshman season. Nevertheless, trying to cool the hype machine is difficult, though Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer did get some enlightening feedback about where Manning is in his progress as an NFL prospect.
NFL Execs Offer Reality Check On Arch Manning’s Draft Hype
Breer reached out to a few NFL executives across the league and it seems, as he put it: “…people can’t wrap their heads around what Arch is.”
Of course, everyone wants to believe he’s going to be like his uncles Peyton Manning and Eli Manning, but Breer reports that his generational tag may be too broad.
“He’s a good quarterback prospect—6′ 4″, athletic, can run, has plus arm talent but not special arm talent, and has improved every year,” one assistant general manager told Breer. “The last name is putting the ‘generational’ thing on him, and I don’t think he’s that. His decision-making under duress is still iffy and needs work; he runs hot and cold with his accuracy. He can make pinpoint throws, but consistently misses on in-cuts, digs and slants.
“You’ll bet on the kid because of the pedigree, but he’s not in the Andrew Luck category. How I’d look at it: Luck was freaky smart, a freaky athlete. The floor was extremely high, the failure rate really low. Arch doesn’t have a low floor, but it’s definitely lower than that. And he has a ceiling that could match Luck’s—the true physical ability could match it. But some of the QB-specific play, he’s not there yet.”
Even if the Texas quarterback may not have all the athletic traits and abilities right now, one of his biggest strengths is in his character, which is said to be going a long way in his development.
“The staff [Texas] loves him. He’s sharp, motivated, a great teammate, focused in all areas, he takes care of his body, humble, his family is low maintenance,” said another assistant GM. “He checks all those boxes. He’s a guy’s guy.”
Arch Manning Draws Justin Herbert Comparison From NFL Execs
Breer couldn’t leave out one in particular comp Manning received from another assistant general manager that could be quite telling of his future.
Breer wrote, “And if it all comes together and he gets more consistent throwing the ball, the guys I talked to agreed he could become a Justin Herbert-type prospect, but with a little less arm strength.”
“You had to project with Herbert some, but he was a big athlete, a good dude,” said the second assistant GM. “That’s a pretty good comp.”
Herbert ended up being a first-round pick, No. 6 overall in the 2020 draft to the Los Angeles Chargers. Since then, he’s become the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, earned two Pro Bowl honors and thrown for nearly 25,000 yards and 163 touchdowns.
If that is indeed the comp for Manning, any quarterback-needy team will take it in a heartbeat.
The real question is whether the Longhorns’ star will enter next year’s draft. He will have another year of eligibility still remaining. He could use that to build his draft stock even more and not just rely on his last name. He’ll enter the 2026 season with just 15 starts under his belt, with the opportunity of at least 12 more and a maximum of 16, depending on if Texas makes the College Football Playoff.
NFL Execs Push Back On Arch Manning Generational Hype: ‘Not In Andrew Luck Category’