With The Open Championship set to begin, golf fans wonder who they will pick for the year’s final major championship. Royal Birkdale Golf Club presents a unique challenge compared to some of the other course on the Open Rota. With how firm and fast the conditions are, this is not a course players can overpower. Dialing in skills on approach and around the greens will be critical this week in determining the champion.
Looking at the Data Golf Course Fit tool, the relative importance of around the green play is massive compared to the other skillsets. Distance and putting seem the least predictive of all five skills while accuracy and approach play rank around the average compared to courses around the world. Accuracy has plenty of value given the penalties on the course though. Players will need to hesitate using driver on some holes to focus on avoiding the rough, fescue, and pot-bunkers.
Si Woo Kim (50/1) sticks out as a player who fits the ideals of this course. While he’s not long off the tee nor a great putter, his approach play and short game are at an elite level. 2026 has been the best year of Kim’s career. A true bout of contention at a major championship needs to be in the cards. He is too strong of a player to not contend at an Open Championship.
Min Woo Lee (50/1) also comes to mind given his advancements on approach. He lacks some accuracy off the tee, but his short game and distance rank very highly. Coming off a second place finish at the Scottish Open, Lee looks to cap off this season proving that he belongs in upper tier of talent. Links golf suits him well it appears.
Justin Thomas (55/1) has the profile to succeed at Open Championships despite having only one top 20 in his career. His around the green game is impeccable. While he’s no longer one of the best approach players, he still ranks highly with that skill. Thomas is overdue for an appearance at a major championship as well.
Patrick Cantlay (60/1) missed the cut after being tied for the lead in round one of the Scottish Open last week, but the difficult weather conditions hampered several quality players. Cantlay’s approach play and ability around the greens should service him well this tournament. There’s still a lot to appreciate about how his game is trending.
Alex Fitzpatrick (70/1) earned his PGA Tour card after winning the Zurich Classic with his brother Matthew Fitzpatrick. Since that victory, Fitzpatrick has stacked great results by being one of the better approach players in the world. While his brother has rightfully garnered some expectations for this week, do not sleep on Alex being a contender this week given his season thus far.
The Open Championship Picks: Some Mid-Tier Players to Consider
GettyBen Griffin still remains one of the more underappreciated players on the PGA Tour.
Ben Griffin (100/1) came into 2026 off the high of his excellent 2025 campaign, where he won three times that season. This season, he struggled on the onset, but over the last three months really turned around his approach play. Griffin has an immaculate short game, but his ability on approach is great as well. He’s one of the more underrated professional golfers who I almost ranked in the upper tier.
Maverick McNealy (100/1) enters Royal Birkdale in the midst of a respectable year. However, McNealy has yet to contend despite nine top 25 finishes in 2026. McNealy’s short game is also elite, which should benefit him greatly this week. Combined with some solid approach play, expect McNealy to be around for the weekend.
Ryan Gerard (175/1) remains one of the best approach players in the world, but he is also extremely accurate off the tee. Not to mention, he’s made tremendous strides lately with the putter. While he lacks some touch around the greens, Gerard could plot around with his long irons and succeed this week. He was right there with JT Poston at The Memorial Tournament.
Keegan Bradley‘s (175/1) 2026 season has been much quieter than the tumultuous Ryder Cup year of 2025. However, Bradley still displays a well rounded game. His approach play and around the green game are still excellent. A good week at Royal Birkdale is not implausible.
Longshots For The Open Championship
GettyMatt Wallace enters the Open Championship quietly playing some excellent golf.
Matt Wallace (200/1) comes to Royal Birkdale as another unsuspecting talent. His approach play has been the best of his career in 2026. He’s always been respectable around the greens as well. After some recent moments of contention at the Italian Open and Valero Texas Open, Wallace could surprise this week.
Keith Mitchell (225/1) struggled at previous Open Championships, but he seems to have grown this year as a player. His ball striking became a true weapon over the last several years, but the lack of a short game prevented him from winning tournaments. With improvements there, it seems Mitchell is close though as shown by an excellent t-4 at the U.S. Open.
Nick Taylor (300/1) has had a solid year overall in 2026 statistically but it has not materialized in results. Despite flirting with contention at the PGA Championship, a poor final round killed his chances at a victory. Taylor consistently shows his ability in strong fields with three wins since 2023. His game fits Royal Birkdale very well on approach and around the greens.
Michael Kim (300/1) showcased some tremendous form in 2025. While that has not replicated so far in 2026, Kim’s short game and approach play still rate out very well. Off the tee is a concern, but with less holes to use driver on at Royal Birkdale, the increased use of irons and wedges should help him. Similarly to his win at the French Open last year, Royal Birkdale could inspire a comparable performance.
Sam Stevens (350/1) impressed many with his start at the U.S. Open this year, and he remains a quality ball striker. Even though he lacks experience with links golf, his experience at Shinnecock Hills could translate to Royal Birkdale nicely. Stevens lacks a great short game, but his ability around the greens was once better than it is now. Perhaps Birkdale can bring out the best of him like Shinneock did.
The Open Championship Picks: Golfers to Watch at Royal Birkdale