New Patrick Mahomes Contract Projection Would Reset QB Market

Patrick Mahomes

Getty Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes II at the White House in 2023.

Patrick Mahomes II was very honest with the media on May 24, stating that “I worry about legacy and winning rings more than making money at this moment.”

Having said that, even the Kansas City Chiefs have openly admitted that his contract must be reworked at some point and an NFL expert predicted what that eventual pay raise might look like. Anthony Holzman-Escareno — a senior researcher with NFL Network — produced an article projecting the “All-Paid Team of Tomorrow,” and Mahomes was one of the players that Holzman-Escareno expects will reset the market at his position in the near future.

“Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert could each have their turn atop the quarterback market,” Holzman-Escareno wrote. “The sequence depends on the order in which they sign new contracts.” In the end, he settled on Mahomes outlasting the others and eventually one-upping all quarterbacks with an average annual salary of $55 million-plus.

Lamar Jackson Is Patrick Mahomes’ APY Mark to Beat at $52 Million But Joe Burrow & Justin Herbert Could Change That

This offseason, two quarterbacks topped Aaron Rodgers’ $50 million-plus APY pay raise with the Green Bay Packers according to Over the Cap. Those players were Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson — with the latter quickly surpassing the former as the new leader at $52 million per year.

Holzman-Escareno is obviously looking a little further down the line with that $55 million-plus prediction, anticipating that Burrow and Herbert will raise the APY number before Mahomes eventually shatters it.

“Burrow has an argument to be considered the NFL’s best quarterback not named Patrick Mahomes, so he could definitely get his time atop the market,” Holzman-Escareno noted. “The top two seasons in Bengals history in terms of both passing yards and touchdowns are Burrow’s 2021 and ’22 seasons, [and] the Bengals have won as many playoff games with Burrow (five) as they had in the 53 seasons prior to drafting him first overall in 2020.”

He also detailed Herbert’s claim to the throne, voicing: “Herbert hasn’t had close to the postseason success that Burrow has enjoyed, but he’s the type of foundational piece franchises build around. The Chargers have leaned heavily on Herbert. He threw more passes (699) than any player not named Tom Brady (733) and had more passing yards (4,739) than any player not named Patrick Mahomes (5,250) last season.”

Why the Chiefs Must Award Patrick Mahomes Eventually

You might be thinking — if Mahomes doesn’t want a raise, why give him one?

First off, the Chiefs QB has been very diplomatic about the situation, but he also revealed that he and his agent are in “open communication” with the team. He’s owes it to his colleagues around the sport to ask for a salary bump — even if it’s not immediate — and the KC organization owes it to Mahomes to make good on that request.

There are ways to keep it team friendly as the two parties did the first time around, but this is going to happen at some point in the next few years.

Holzman-Escareno explained why: “In Mahomes’ five seasons as the starter, the Chiefs have made five straight AFC Championship Games and appeared in three Super Bowls, winning two. Mahomes’ 11 career playoff wins are not only tied with Aaron Rodgers for the most by any active player but are also just five shy of tying Joe Montana for the second-most all-time.”

Continuing: “Mahomes, Montana, and Tom Brady are the only players to win multiple NFL MVP and Super Bowl MVP awards. Montana played 15 seasons. Brady played 23 seasons. Mahomes is entering Year 7. In February, he became the first player in NFL history to lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns, win the regular season MVP and win the Super Bowl MVP in a single season.”

If all of that wasn’t enough, Holzman-Escareno added that “[Mahomes] is the only quarterback since 1950 to record a winning record (14-10) in games where his team trailed by at least 10 points (minimum 10 starts in such games). Mahomes is also the only quarterback with a winning record (17-13) in games in which his team allowed 28 points.”

The Chiefs superstar is currently the seventh-highest paid QB in terms of APY. After Burrow and Herbert get extended, that rank will likely drop to ninth. Obviously, a market correction is in order.

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