Getty Dalvin Cook could be on the chopping block with Justin Jefferson's contract extension window opening this offseason.
The Minnesota Vikings are enjoying a 10-2 start to the season by having one foot in the past and the other in the present.
However, the franchise is approaching an impasse with its veteran talent.
Five players on the active roster helped the Vikings make it to the 2017 NFC Championship and are enjoying a season that is rivaling their run five years ago. They’ve brought veteran experience and leadership that is intangible for a team that was kept intact amid a regime change and has made a miraculous turnaround in their first year under head coach Kevin O’Connell.
But eventually, the new regime will have to start building a team in its own image — and the biggest piece to that team will be Justin Jefferson.
The third-year wide receiver is expected to become the league’s highest-paid wide receiver in the offseason with a deal expected to be around $150 million or $30 million annually. Jefferson’s average cap hit on his rookie contract is a mere $3.2 million against the cap, making his expected cap weight on his next deal nearly tenfold.
That’s going to come at the cost of either cutting some veteran talent (much like what happened in 2020 when Kirk Cousins got a contract extension) or asking some of the team’s aging stars to take a pay cut.
KSTP’s Darren Wolfson took inventory of Minnesota’s cap situation and named three Pro Bowlers who could be on the chopping block this offseason.
Wolfson: Dalvin Cook, Eric Kendricks & Harrison Smith on the Chopping Block; Adam Thielen is Safe for Now
Appearing on the SKOR North podcast, Wolfson said there is “zero doubt” the Vikings will make Jefferson the league’s highest-paid wide receiver in the offseason.
He named Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith and Eric Kendricks as potential cap casualties when it comes time to put Jefferson’s deal on the cap sheet.
“The cap is going up. It’s not like they need to do all sorts of gymnastics. But you would take a look at Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Cook, those three guys stand out to me,” Wolfson said, adding that Adam Thielen is likely safe despite a $20 million cap hit approaching in 2023.
Smith, despite being the oldest of the trio at 33, has more longevity as a safety. His value to the defense goes beyond the plays he makes, but also the plays that never happen with his presence. The Vikings did draft Lewis Cine in the first round, however, he appears to be far away from taking Smith’s role as a free safety.
That leaves Kendricks and Cook, and both players have seen a significant decline in their careers.
The Case Against Dalvin Cook & Eric Kendricks
Despite Jefferson becoming the offense’s top weapon, Cook has maintained productive numbers. Cook ranks fifth with 927 rushing yards and is averaging 90.4 yards from scrimmage this season.
However, his effectiveness has plummeted.
“Over the past three seasons, Cook’s rush yards over expectation — a Next Gen Stats metric that estimates the mean rush yards a runner should average based on the location and speed of every player at the time of handoff — have dropped from plus-250 in 2020 to plus-81 in 2021 to minus-5 this year,” ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote. Cook has rushed for less than what was expected of him.”
Cook isn’t creating for himself like he has in the past. He is still a productive back but on the decline, while he is scheduled to be paid as a top-five running back through 2025.
Meanwhile, Kendricks is the league’s second-highest paid inside linebacker this season with a $13.5 million cap hit while grading out as the 37th-ranked inside linebacker by Pro Football Focus (PFF). That’s been somewhat a symptom of a struggling Vikings defense as a whole, however, his pay grade for performance is becoming a concern.
Fellow inside linebacker Jordan Hicks is ranked 32nd by PFF and is the 20th highest-paid linebacker at $3.5 million this season.
Kendricks and Cook were rewarded as premier players at their positions but are currently on the downturn of their careers, leaving their contract suspect of some conversations in the offseason.