With Ranger Suarez swooped up by the Red Sox, the hope is that Zac Gallen’s market would open up. However, the former Diamondbacks ace might hit a cold market.
In his latest report from The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal spoke to an executive about Gallen. The executive, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said the Diamondbacks’ 2025 Opening Day starter “might suffer from being one of the least attractive free agents among those who rejected qualifying offers.”
It’s no surprise there’s a weak market for Gallen. The Diamondbacks elected to hold onto him after not getting any acceptable offers at the trade deadline. He recovered somewhat in his next 10 starts, as he pitched to a 2.82 with 51 strikeouts and 18 walks over 60.2 innings. While it was a positive sign, the damage might have already been done regarding his earning potential.
Considering his strong track record in 2022-24 and his strong finish to 2025, the Diamondbacks extended Gallen a qualifying offer. That way, they would either bring him back for $22.05 million or gain draft pick compensation. Ideally, there’d be a strong enough market for Gallen to get a $50+ million deal and net Arizona a first round pick (No. 29 overall).
If Gallen isn’t getting offers of $50 million or more, it impacts the Diamondbacks’ draft compensation for losing him. If he signs for less than that amount, then the pick Arizona gets back is No. 75. If he signs for more than $50 million, that pick moves up to No. 29 overall. That’s a 56-pick difference, one that likely costs $2-3 million in the draft bonus pool.
Why Zac Gallen Might Have a Cold Market
Gallen endured the worst season of his career in 2025. While he answered the bell 33 times, logging the second-most innings of his career, his bottom-line metrics weren’t good. He pitched to a 4.83 ERA and a 21.9% strikeout rate, both career-worsts.
The timing couldn’t have been worse for Gallen. After declining the qualifying offer, the Diamondbacks have already worked quickly to shore up their rotation. They signed Michael Soroka and Merrill Kelly in December. While they could use more starters, it’s unclear if they can fit Gallen in their budget.
The other underlying issue is that teams might not be willing to give up a draft pick to sign a pitcher in decline. The penalties vary, based on the team that signs them.
- Competitive Balance Tax payors: Second and fifth-highest draft selections
- Revenue-sharing teams: Third-highest selection
- Else: Second-highest selection
For most teams, that will be their second round pick. However, the Braves and Astros would surrender their Prospect Promotion Incentive pick, which is No. 26 and No. 28 respectively. A higher draft pick cost serves as a further deterrent for those two clubs signing Gallen. That’s why Houston elected to sign Tatsuya Imai instead.
Gallen might not have much appeal to big-market clubs. While draft pick penalties aren’t a deterrent, teams like the Mets or Phillies might set their eyes on bigger targets. Framber Valdez is still a free agent, and the trade market could see Freddy Peralta and Tarik Skubal moved soon.
Zac Gallen’s Likely Next Steps
The issue for Gallen is the inclusion of the qualifying offer. There may only be a handful of teams willing to sign him and surrender the draft pick.
Gallen will certainly have to settle for a short-term offer. That seems to be more in vogue, with Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette doing so this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Gallen to get a four-year, $80 million contract, which seems unlikely. The median crowd-sourced projection on FanGraphs has him getting a two-year, $44 million deal.
With the qualifying offer limiting his market, perhaps that opens the door to a reunion with the Diamondbacks. The Padres‘ Michael King took a similar route this offseason, signing a three-year deal with opt-outs.
The question remains if the Diamondbacks have the budget for it. Right now, Cots Contracts has Arizona at $209.2 million for their CBT payroll in 2026. Signing Gallen pushes them over $230 million, unless there is some creative accounting in the deal’s structure.
Unless Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick is willing to field a record payroll for the third straight season, that seems unlikely. But perhaps he’s willing to make an exception.
Zac Gallen’s Cold Market Could Hurt the Diamondbacks in the Draft