The Boston Red Sox have leaned on strong pitching and a resurgent offense during their turnaround this season, but defense has quietly been just as important to the club’s success. Ceddanne Rafaela has been at the center of that, and even a recent trip to the injured list isn’t expected to cost him individual hardware.
mlb.com/news/2026-mlb-gold-glove-award-predictions” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener”>MLB.com’s Jared Greenspan, Brian Murphy and Jason Foster are predicting Rafaela to win the American League Gold Glove at center field, continuing a run of excellence that’s defined his season regardless of his current absence.
Why Rafaela’s Defensive Case Remains Strong
The trio was direct in their assessment of Rafaela’s range and instincts in center field.
“When healthy, there’s no one better at that spot in the junior circuit,” the group wrote.
The numbers back that up. Rafaela made the most five-star catches of any player in baseball this season with nine, and according to Baseball Savant, his Fielding Run Value ranks tied for fourth-best among all players league-wide. His mark of 15 leads all American League outfielders outright, trailing only Bobby Witt Jr.‘s 17 across the entire AL and Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s 27 among all outfielders in either league.
This wouldn’t be new territory for Rafaela either. He already won his first Gold Glove last season, and this year’s performance suggests a second is well within reach.
Why the Injury Shouldn’t Change the Outcome
Rafaela’s absence naturally raises questions about whether the award race stays settled in his favor. The gap suggests it should. Tristan Peters sits second among AL center fielders with a 10 FRV, a full five runs behind Rafaela’s mark. Closing that gap in the season’s final month would require an exceptional stretch from Peters or any other center fielder in the running, and nothing in the numbers suggests that’s likely.
Final Word for the Red Sox
Rafaela’s defensive body of work has been strong enough all season. A short IL stint shouldn’t be enough to change the outcome. He’s been in a tier of his own in center field, and the numbers back that up clearly.
If the prediction holds, Rafaela adds a second Gold Glove to his resume, even while working his way back from injury. That would further cement his place as one of the game’s premier defenders at the position.
Red Sox Star Predicted to Win Major Award Despite Injury