The baseball world was stunned on Friday when, just a day after free agent Kyle Tucker took a record-breaking $60 million per year contract offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers, another highly coveted free agent hitter, Bo Bichette, agreed to sign with the New York Mets.
Bichette’s deal, according to an ESPN.com report, will pay the 27-year-old an average of $42 million per year over three years.
But the Mets may not be done, and neither may the Boston Red Sox, who in a new trade proposal by MLB analyst Jordan Leandre of Just Baseball would help New York get even stronger by shipping 29-year-old outfielder Jarren Duran to Queens, getting back a package of players that addresses a pair of the Red Sox’ pressing needs.
Red Sox Dealing From a Surplus of Outfielders
Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been extremely reluctant to deal Duran, the 2024 All-Star Game MVP, even though the Red Sox roster as currently constructed would appear to dictate the move.
“As shorthanded as the Red Sox’s infield currently appears, the outfield has the complete opposite issue. In Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran, the Red Sox have four everyday players for three spots,” wrote another Just Baseball scribe, Daniel Fox, on Friday, adding that the continued presence of outfielder/DH Masataka Yoshida and inevitable promotion of prospect Kristian Campbell complicates the Boston outfield problem even further.
“While Breslow may believe that there is a pathway to make all the pieces fit together, the math doesn’t add up,” Fox wrote.
Yet Breslow has insisted that trading Duran “was never likely in my mind,” as quoted by reporter Chris Cotillo of MassLive.
How Duran Stacks Up Against Big Money Free Agents
After signing up to pay $126 million for three years of Bichette, what would the Mets be getting in Duran? In terms of fWAR, wins above replacement as measured by FanGraphs, Bichette over the last three years has produced an 8.0 total in that category.
Tucker, who will receive $240 million over four years with the Dodgers, has a three-year fWAR of 13.6.
Duran’s total fWAR from 2023 through 2025 is 13.2, significantly better than Bichette and not far off the pace set by Tucker.
Looked at from the perspective of weighted runs created plus, or wRC+, runs created adjusted for various factors with the league average set at 100, Duran comes off further behind, but not too much. The Red Sox 2018 seventh-round draft pick has a career wRC+ of 113, in other words, 13 percent more productive than average.
Bichette’s wRC+ stands at 122, while Tucker boasts a 136 number. For comparison, last year’s top free agent, Juan Soto, who signed a historic 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets, boasts a three-year fWAR of 20.3 and a career wRC+ of 158.
Who Would Red Sox Get Back For Duran?
The Red Sox need infield defense. Of the current five-man starting rotation, three pitchers rank in the top 25 percent in groundball rate — Garrett Crochet (81st percentile), Brayan Bello (84th percentile) and newly acquired Ranger Suarez (76th percentile).
In addition, new trade acquisitions Sonny Gray (66th percentile) and Johan Oviedo (64th percentile) also rank highly in groundballs allowed.
In the Just Baseball proposal, the Red Sox would receive infielder Luisangel Acuña, who accrued five defensive runs saved last season in just 91 defensive games, 81 of them at second base.
But after an offseason of trading away top prospects to bolster the pitching staff, the Red Sox would also receive two Top 10 Mets prospects to help replenish the Boston farm system. According to Leandre, those would be No. 5 prospect Brandon Sproat, a righty pitcher, and corner infielder Jacob Reimer, the Mets No. 6 prospect as ranked by MLB Pipeline.
Whether that package would be enough to change Breslow’s mind about trading Duran is a question that may never be answered.
Red Sox Tabbed to Trade Jarren Duran to Mets After Bo Bichette Signing