We do not quite know whom the Red Sox will be playing when they take the field to open the playoffs in the American League next week, but we do know that the Red Sox will be taking part in meaningful October baseball for the first time since 2021, and we can say with certainty that ace Garrett Crochet will be on the mound for Game 1 on the road.
That is a good thing, of course. Crochet has been, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball, with an 18-5 record, a league-high 205.1 innings, an ERA of 2.59 and 255 strikeouts, also a league high. While it’s always nice to open a playoff series at home, in this case, the Red Sox won’t be too disappointed: Crochet is 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in 14 starts at home, and 13-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 18 starts on the road.
Crochet, Game 1, Tuesday September 30, on the road: Etch that in stone.
Red Sox Decision: Lucas Giolito or Brayan Bello in Game 2?
Game 2, though, becomes a bit of a different story. The Red Sox could go with either Lucas Giolito or Brayan Bello in that one, and there’s a case to be made for both. But they have the same quirk in their splits as Crochet, in which they pitch better on the road than at home–Giolito is 5-2 with a 3.18 ERA in 14 road starts while Bello is 3-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 11 road starts.
Both would be working on plenty of rest. Giolito in Game 2 would have six days of rest behind him, and Bello would have five.
Neither pitcher has been lights-out down the stretch, with Giolito at 1-2 with a 3.16 ERA and only 25.2 innings pitched in his last five games and Bello at 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 25.0 innings in his last five games.
Given his experience level, the nod likely is going to Giolito. He’s not exactly Whitey Ford when it comes to postseason experience, but he does have two playoff starts and at 31, might have a bit more trust behind him than Bello.
Alex Cora Could Make a Bold Call in Game 3
And what if there is a Game 3 to decide the wild-card round? It’s likely that Alex Cora will play that straight and start Bello, though, again, his numbers in Fenway this year are not great (8-5, 3.53 ERA, .251 batting average allowed).
But, especially if the matchup is right, don’t rule out a Red Sox surprise in a potential rubber match for the series. Rookie Connelly Early has been outstanding in his brief stint with the team, and there’s a chance that Cora could call on Early to spearhead a short combo start that could also include Bello, Payton Tolle and/or Kyle Harrison.
It would be outside the box, no doubt. But Early had a strong start on Saturday against the Tigers (at least before the two runs allowed in the fifth) and has earned–at least–consideration for a postseason starting role. He’ll get that in a long series, but he’s shown he should get it in a three-game matchup, too.
There is still much to be decided. By Tuesday, we figure to know more.
Red Sox Rotation Set Up Ahead of AL Playoffs