The Detroit Tigers have been here before.
September has arrived with Detroit looking up at several teams in the American League playoff race and needing to make up significant ground before time runs out. It is a position that should sound familiar after the Tigers turned a late-season charge into an unlikely postseason appearance in 2024.
That history gives Detroit at least a little hope. The problem is that this year’s team has yet to provide the same signs that another dramatic run is coming.
And with fewer than four weeks remaining, the numbers are beginning to show just how difficult Detroit’s path has become.
Tigers’ Playoff Probability Falls Below 1%
The Tigers entered September buried in a crowded AL race, and their postseason probability has fallen accordingly.
According to PlayoffStatus, Detroit has less than a 1% chance of reaching any of the available AL playoff positions. The site’s projections put the Tigers’ probability of missing the postseason at greater than 99%.
Around the same time in 2024, the Tigers were five games out of a Wild Card spot. This year’s club entered the same stage 5 1/2 games back.
Detroit went 17-8 in September that year and eventually finished 86-76, earning the AL’s final Wild Card berth before eliminating the Houston Astros in the Wild Card Series.
The 2026 Tigers have instead spent recent weeks moving in the opposite direction. Detroit entered Wednesday having lost 14 of its previous 17 games.
Manager A.J. Hinch has maintained that the team isn’t as far from winning games as the results might suggest.
“The margins are small,” Hinch said. “We’re learning a lot. We’ve got some guys taking their lumps a little bit, but we’re also a hit or two away from flipping the conversation to a really exciting series win.”
Detroit finally produced one of those wins Wednesday, beating the Minnesota Twins 11-6 in 12 innings. Spencer Torkelson broke a 6-6 tie with his 21st home run before Javier Báez delivered a bases-clearing double during a five-run 12th.
Riley Greene’s Return Could Give Tigers Much-Needed Boost
The Tigers scored just nine runs during their previous six-game homestand against the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers. Four of those runs came in one game, while Detroit was held to one run or fewer four times.
Some of that can be attributed to the quality of pitching the Tigers faced. Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow combined to surrender only two runs across 18 innings against Detroit while recording 23 strikeouts.
Riley Greene’s return from the injured list could help. The All-Star outfielder was activated before Tuesday’s game against Minnesota after a brief rehab assignment with Triple-A Toledo.
“I want to be here every single game, and not being able to be there was tough,” Greene said. “But injuries, they happen, and I was focused on trying to get as healthy as I can as fast as possible.”
His presence gives Hinch an established run producer in the middle of a lineup increasingly populated by young players.
“Doesn’t suck to have an All-Star back in your lineup and the energy he brings, the presence he brings, and the stability,” Hinch said. “But it doesn’t have to just be him [picking up the team].”
Greene collected two hits in Wednesday’s victory.
Max Clark is another reason for optimism. The highly regarded outfielder had three doubles and scored three runs in the extra-inning win over Minnesota after providing Detroit’s only homer during its previous homestand.
Tigers Have Opportunity to Make Up Ground Directly
Detroit still has several games against AL opponents ahead in the playoff race.
At 64-75, the Tigers sit six games behind the final AL Wild Card spot with 23 games remaining. Detroit would likely need to win somewhere around 18 to 20 of those games while also getting significant help from the teams ahead of it.
The Tigers aren’t chasing just one club, either, with Cleveland, Texas, Baltimore, Toronto, Minnesota and Seattle all standing between them and the final postseason berth.
That makes the upcoming stretch particularly unforgiving. Even an 18-5 finish would leave Detroit at 82-80, meaning the Tigers would still need the Wild Card cutoff to fall considerably from recent seasons.
Here’s a look at the Tigers’ remaining schedule:
- Sept. 4-6: at Cleveland Guardians (4 games)
- Sept. 7-9: vs. Minnesota Twins (3 games)
- Sept. 11-13 vs. Colorado Rockies (3 games)
- Sept. 14-16 at Toronto Blue Jays (3 games)
- Sept. 17-20 at Chicago White Sox (4 games)
- Sept. 21-23 vs. Washington Nationals (3 games)
- Sept. 25-27 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (3 games)
Tigers Get Troubling Playoff Forecast Entering Final Stretch