With Friday the 13th right around the corner, it’s worth looking into MLB’s unluckiest team. And that dubious distinction goes to the Detroit Tigers.
According to a study published by Casino Guru, Detroit topped the list of baseball’s unluckiest teams in 2026 with a score of 93.73. The Unluckiness Score looked at various metrics including one-run games, walk-offs, blown leads, and extra-inning losses.
Now, one could argue that metrics like blowing leads don’t depend on luck. But when considering one-run games and extra-inning losses, really, these games could go either way.
“The Detroit Tigers find themselves as MLB’s unluckiest team last season with an index score of 93.73/100. Although not every part of the index is caused by luck, the data shows which teams’ results fell well short of their season-long performance, and which teams faced more misfortune than the rest of the league.”
As the study highlighted, the Tigers faced their fair share of disappointing outcomes throughout the season.
The study added further insights into Detroit’s underlying metrics explaining their sour season.
“The Tigers went 76-86, finishing ten games under .500. However, when looking at runs scored and allowed, they should have gone 89-73, suggesting bad luck had an effect on their season.”
All right, so the losing record wasn’t exactly the result of bad luck. There were some missed opportunities and blown games along the way. However, some of the other metrics paint a picture of just how different the Tigers’ season could have been if a couple of bounces had gone their way.
Tigers’ Numbers Show Their Season Came Down to Inches
When looking at some of the other underlying metrics, the Tigers’ season came down to inches.
“Their gap in expected wins and actual wins was 13, the largest in the league. They also ranked highly for several other index measures, such as losing 61.4% of their one-run games (27 of 44 – the 2nd highest) and suffering 11 walk-off defeats, making them tied for 2nd in the MLB.”
The Tigers were expected to win 13 more games than they did. And when looking at the final standings in the AL Central, an 89-73 mark would have been good enough to win the division. That’s really interesting because the Cleveland Guardians, who won the AL Central, made it all the way to the ALCS. While the Guardians lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in that series, who’s to say that the Tigers couldn’t have beaten the Rays?
Of course, that’s something that will only exist in the realm of what-ifs.
You Have to Be Good to Be Lucky
At the end of the day, the saying “You have to be good to be lucky” holds as true today as ever. Good baseball teams, fundamentally sound teams, tend to do much better in terms of luck. Teams that play good defense and get solid pitching end up taking better advantage of their opportunities.
And that will be the lesson for the Tigers this season. As long as the club can play good baseball, there’s always the chance that a couple of bounces will go their way. And that might just be the difference between getting an early start to the winter and playing meaningful baseball in October.
Tigers Are Baseball’s Unluckiest Team, Research Shows