The Houston Astros remain in the postseason picture, but their playoff situation leaves an important question — with all three Wild Card spots now taken in the American League, can the Astros make the playoffs?
Here’s a breakdown of the Astros’ playoff scenarios, including what Houston needs to clinch a spot and what could leave them on the outside looking in for the postseason.
The Astros cannot clinch a playoff berth Thursday night, but the American League West title remains theirs to take with four games left, and in fact, winning the division is one of only two scenarios that could get them to the postseason, and it looks like the more likely one.
Houston made eight straight postseasons and won two World Series titles before being shut out last October, and a second straight miss is very much on the table.
Texas overtook Houston on Thursday afternoon, beating the New York Mets 3-1 to move a half-game clear of the Astros at the top of the AL West, according to ESPN‘s game recap. The Rangers sit at 79-80. Houston is 78-80 and opens a four-game series at the Athletics tonight.
| HOUSTON ASTROS — REMAINING 2026 SCHEDULE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Opponent | Time | TV | Pitcher | Opp. Pitcher |
| Thu, Sept. 24 | @ Athletics | 9:40 p.m. | MLB.tv | Lambert | Barnett |
| Fri, Sept. 25 | @ Athletics | 9:40 p.m. | MLB.tv | Wesneski | Lopez |
| Sat, Sept. 26 | @ Athletics | 9:40 p.m. | MLB.tv | Brown | Perkins |
| Sun, Sept. 27 | @ Athletics | 3:05 p.m. | MLB.tv | — | Basso |
| All times Eastern. Schedule reflects games remaining in the 2026 regular season as of September 24, 2026. Pitching matchups subject to change. | |||||
Houston Astros’ AL West Clinching Scenarios
Houston holds the tiebreaker. The Astros won the season series from Texas 9-4 with a plus-23 run differential, so a tie in the standings hands them the division, according to MLB.com‘s Andrew Simon.
Any combination of Astros wins and Rangers losses totaling four clinches the division. Texas plays three games at Minnesota beginning Friday, Simon reported.
The scenarios break down cleanly. A 4-0 sweep of the Athletics gives Houston an 82-80 finish and the title, whatever Texas does. At 3-1, the Astros win the West unless the Rangers sweep Minnesota.
At 2-2, Houston needs Texas to win no more than one game. At 1-3, the Rangers must lose all three. At 0-4, Texas wins the division regardless.
No division winner in the divisional era has finished below .500, and the closest call was the 2005 Padres at 82-80, according to Simon. Both AL West clubs currently sit two games under .500.
A second-place finish in the West all but ends the season. The Yankees and Red Sox have clinched the first two wild cards, and the Chicago White Sox have also clinched a playoff spot.
Houston Astros’ Possible Playoff Opponent
A West title would make Houston the AL’s No. 3 seed, with a home best-of-three Wild Card Series against the No. 6 seed and no first-round bye, Simon reported.
The opponent depends on the AL Central. Cleveland led Chicago 82-76 to 81-77 entering Thursday, and the White Sox own the tiebreaker if the two finish level.
If Cleveland holds the division, the Chicago White Sox slide into the No. 6 seed and travel to Houston. If Chicago wins the Central, the Guardians fall to the last wild card and become the Astros’ first-round opponent.
Texas has not won the division since 2016, though the Rangers triumphed in the 2023 World Series as a wild card team. Houston is chasing what would be its eighth division title in a 10-season span.
Houston plays all four remaining games at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, while Texas travels to Minnesota. By Sunday night, the Astros will most likely either hold a division title or face a second consecutive October at home.
Houston Astros Playoff Scenarios: Can They Still Make the Postseason?