There’s a little over a week remaining before the July 31 trade deadline. That means less than 10 days of predictions about contending teams swapping top prospects for players to help with their championship goals.
But how many top prospects are realistically going to be involved in such transactions?
In a report for Baseball America, J.J. Cooper examined all of the deadline deals since 2014, and while the data doesn’t point to anything conclusive, it does seem likely that an underwhelming number of players from BA’s top-100 list will be traded. And the higher up the list a player is, the less likely he will be switching teams.
In fact, last season, not a single player among the top 100 was included in any deal. In the six seasons prior to that, a total of 21 top-100 prospects were traded, with eight of them changing uniforms in 2022, courtesy primarily of the Juan Soto and Luis Castillo blockbusters. And of those 21, none of them were among the top-10 prospects, while five were in the 11-25 range.
So for all of the prognostications, proposals and pitches, all of the grandiose ideas suggesting team A will acquire superstar B for prospects C, D and E, chances are that only a handful of the top 100, most of them in the bottom half, will actually wind up being involved.
But there seems to be a better-than-average chance that one of them will be Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing.
Dalton Rushing Made His MLB Debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 15
Ranked No. 20 on Baseball America’s latest top-100 list, Rushing was called up from Triple-A Oklahoma City on May 14, less because of a need at the Major League level and more because Rushing had nothing left to prove at Triple-A. Drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft, Rushing had posted a slash line of .277/.412/.519, with 54 home runs and 185 RBIs in 264 minor league games, and he was batting .308 for Oklahoma City at the time of the promotion.
Rushing made his Major League debut on May 15, going 2-for-4 with three runs scored. In his next game two nights later, Rushing went 2-for-5 and knocked in his first two RBIs, ostensibly announcing his arrival to the rest of the league. However, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has not been able to play Rushing on a full-time schedule.
In the two months-plus since his debut, Rushing has appeared in only 25 games and had just 71 at-bats, getting 15 hits for an average of .211. With Will Smith entrenched behind the plate, Freddie Freeman still at first base and Shohei Ohtani doing Shohei Ohtani things as the designated hitter, there is no spot on the Dodgers roster for Rushing to get regular playing time.
Lack of Playing Time for Dalton Rushing With Los Angeles Spurs Trade Speculation
It’s why Mark Chiarelli, in a separate article for Baseball America, has Rushing atop his list of high-end prospects who could be used as trade chips because they are blocked from competing at the MLB level with their current franchise.
“[Rushing] has the tools to become one of baseball’s more dynamic catchers with plus raw power, strong plate discipline, ample speed and an above-average arm,” Chiarelli wrote.
“But he doesn’t have a path to regular playing time this year. The 24-year-old has just 68 at-bats since debuting two months ago, as he’s stuck behind Will Smith while getting only spot duty at first base. The Dodgers haven’t tested him in the outfield despite minor league reps there, and there’s no obvious path to everyday at-bats.
“Rushing is talented enough to headline a deadline deal, and moving him might be the best outcome for everyone involved.”
The Dodgers are expected to look for help in the bullpen before the deadline, and may also pursue an extra bat to fill in at third base until Max Muncy returns from injury, or perhaps to replace the struggling Michael Conforto in the outfield. A trade package led by Rushing would give Los Angeles a big boost in its trading efforts.
Top Prospect Could be Key to Dodgers’ Trade Deadline Plans