Based on the current pace of per-game averages, the odds of Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani having a second 50/50 season (50 home runs and 50 steals) this year when you add the stats is less than one percent—that would be 1 in 500. That’s not a wild guess; it’s just what happens when you plug the actual rates into a probability calculation.
The chance is zero for 60 home runs and 60 steals under current conditions. In other words, unless Ohtani’s production takes a dramatic leap, the aspiration of 60/60 remains an impossibility.
How Are the Odds Calculated
When it comes to predictions, numbers matter. If you project Ohtani’s current rate over the remaining games, the path to 50/50 looks incredibly steep. To be clear, that’s not a knock on Ohtani; it’s just the math.
With 23 games played now in the books for 2025, Ohtani’s line—6 home runs and five steals—is strong but not historic. If he played every game at this pace, he’d finish with roughly 42 home runs (0.273 HR/Game) and 35 stolen bases (0.227 SB/Game).
To achieve a 50/50 season again, he would need to increase his averages per game significantly. He has already missed two games due to the birth of his first child, meaning he has 137 opportunities to do so, assuming he does not miss any other games.
A big part of the challenge is that even small dips in production, a short injury, or a cold streak can quickly destroy any chance of matching last year’s totals. Every missed game or single-digit month makes it almost impossible to keep up with the incredible pace required. Even baseball’s best players rarely stay at a peak level year after year.
Shohei Ohtani’s 2024 season—54 home runs and 59 stolen bases—didn’t just break records; it rewrote the limits of what a single player can do. Until Ohtani, the 50/50 club didn’t exist in Major League Baseball. In 2025, with the spotlight on him again, the question is simple: Can he repeat the impossible?
It is essential to mention that Ohtani’s 2024 season didn’t begin with the historic pace that typically foreshadows a 50/50 campaign. Through his first 23 games last year, Ohtani had only four home runs and three stolen bases. When you add his numbers, the probability of a 50/50 season was even smaller, and he did accomplish just that.
Ohtani’s Potential Return to Pitching
If Ohtani’s plans to return to pitching come to pass this season, that’s another variable to watch. The dual workload means more stress, fatigue, and fewer chances to run or swing for the fences. The Ohtani of 2024 could focus solely on hitting after shutting down his pitching. History shows it’s tough—if not impossible—to maintain elite offensive numbers while pitching regularly.
To get back on pace for 50/50, Ohtani would need a significant surge—like hitting home runs and stealing bases at double his current rate for weeks. Baseball history tells us that it’s not impossible but scarce. Most players, even the best, regress toward their average as the season progresses.
Despite the math, fans still hold out hope because Ohtani has already done something unprecedented. His 2024 season was a reminder that sometimes, players really do break the game. The odds say it won’t happen again this year. But if Ohtani makes another run, you won’t want to miss it.
Could LA Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani Go 50/50 Again—or Even 60/60?