The New York Mets have entered an era of their franchise, under the ownership of Steve Cohen, where you assume that they’ll be involved on big-name free agents until proven otherwise.
There’s no bigger name in free agency in the offseason ahead than Tarik Skubal.
The left-handed pitching superstar was traded at the deadline from the Detroit Tigers to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he’s currently worried about getting the Dodgers a three-peat.
Once this season ends, though, Skubal hits the open market, and the bidding could be fierce.
The Mets have shown in recent years, particularly with Bo Bichette, that they’re not afraid of paying a huge annual average value. The question will be whether they’re also willing to invest an overall massive guaranteed amount.
Tarik Skubal Contract Projection With Mets
Skubal’s contract has a wide variety of possible outcomes, depending on how many years he wants and how intent he is on setting an overall pitching contract record.
A new ESPN article on Friday surveyed industry insiders, and the most commonly voted salary range for Skubal was between $351 and $400 million.
Of those votes, there were six specific projections for $400 million exactly in total salary — four of those on an eight-year deal, which would be $50 million per year, and two of those on a 10-year deal, which would be $40 million per year.
“The average projected contract was eight years and $355 million, which is a $44.6 million average annual value (AAV),” ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel wrote as part of the article. “Sixteen of 27 projections (59%) were for $325 to 400 million guaranteed over seven to 10 years — a clear sweet spot, and you’ll see below why that is.”
There were also some shorter-term projections, which may be the kind the Mets would at least think about offering — a four-year projection for $176 million ($44 million per year) and a five-year projection for $300 million ($60 million per year).
When Will Tarik Skubal Sign?
Skubal signing this offseason will be complicated by the Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, which is going to send MLB into a lockout.
Players won’t be able to sign until a new CBA is reached, and so they can either try to get a deal done quickly or wait it out.
If he gets an offer to his liking, Skubal may lean toward signing early.
“I also asked panelists whether the deal would be done before the Dec. 1 expiration of the CBA, when the expected lockout would start: 21 of 27 (78%) predicted the deal will be done before Dec. 1, similar timing to the nine-figure deals of Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Max Scherzer, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Javier Baez that came before the 2021-2022 lockout began. Boras negotiated the first three of those contracts,” McDaniel wrote.
Tarik Skubal to Mets?
So could Skubal really join the Mets even after their mightily disappointing 2026 season?
The ESPN article suggested the Mets as one of the three most likely teams, along with the Dodgers and Tigers.
“The Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and New York Mets came up most often for this category, though the Tigers were mentioned as more likely to be on the periphery than a true contender,” McDaniel writes. “Most insiders project the Dodgers and Mets to be serious bidders, but there is some hesitation surrounding the Dodgers given the controversy around the team’s ownership. Some thought the Mets might be looking to do a shorter-term deal such as they did with Bo Bichette, which might not work if Skubal is looking to set a record for guaranteed money.”
The Mets don’t just do Bichette-style deals, though. They also gave Juan Soto everything he wanted. It might take the same to land Skubal.
Mets Could Take Bo Bichette Approach To Signing Tarik Skubal