The New York Mets have plenty of offseason questions.
One of the biggest involves how much money they can put toward fixing the roster. A closer look at their payroll estimate reveals a detail that could change that conversation by $37 million.
FanGraphs’ RosterResource worksheet currently lists an estimated $236.1 million payroll for 2027. However, its treatment of pending options is crucial.
The total includes potential buyouts rather than the full salaries attached to those options.
For Bo Bichette, that means a $5 million buyout is included instead of his $42 million player option. If he returns on that option, replacing the buyout with his salary increases the worksheet to approximately $273.1 million.
That is an estimate with an important condition attached.
What Is Already on the Mets’ Worksheet?
The same calculation includes approximately $202.35 million in scheduled salaries for eight other guaranteed contracts, $19 million in projected arbitration salaries, and $9.75 million in other payments.
The other payments include money connected to players who have already left the organization. Trading a player does not necessarily erase every related obligation.
The arbitration component also deserves attention.
In an October 3 breakdown for Metsmerized, Robert Colonna reviewed MLB Trade Rumors’ projections for ten eligible Mets. Those estimates include $4.1 million for Francisco Alvarez, $2.5 million for Brett Baty, and $900,000 for Dedniel Núñez.
Those are projected salaries. Tender decisions, negotiations, trades, and arbitration outcomes can change the eventual total.
The worksheet also leaves its 2027 salary estimate for players who have not reached arbitration blank. Filling out the major league roster therefore creates additional costs before any splashy acquisition.
That matters when evaluating a potential signing. The contract’s advertised price is only one part of the roster plan.
A useful offseason budget therefore needs several versions: one with Bichette returning, another with him leaving, and updated totals as the Mets decide which arbitration-eligible players remain in the organization.
Why Payroll Does Not Equal Spending Room
There is another distinction fans should keep in mind.
Scheduled salary, actual cash payments, and the payroll used for luxury-tax calculations can differ. Deferrals and contract accounting make those comparisons especially important.
MLB’s competitive balance tax explanation identifies average annual contract value as the foundation of its payroll calculation.
The Mets also have not publicly established a final 2027 spending ceiling. A projection cannot establish how much owner Steve Cohen will authorize.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press reported that baseball’s current labor agreement expires December 1. The next agreement remains another variable in offseason planning.
For New York, the practical takeaway is straightforward: existing commitments must be counted before new additions.
Bichette’s decision could alter both the lineup and the financial starting point. Arbitration decisions could create smaller changes across several roster spots.
The Mets can still pursue upgrades. But treating the initial $236.1 million estimate as a completed roster, or as proof of a specific free-agent budget, would miss the largest condition inside the calculation.
Mets’ Offseason Payroll Estimate Has a $37 Million Catch