When Major League Baseball expanded the postseason to 12 teams in 2022, it was supposed to promote parity. Instead, it’s helping fuel a new trade deadline player: the opportunist.
Buster Olney of ESPN reported that these clubs aren’t traditional buyers or sellers. They’re fringe contenders floating around .500 — not ready to go all in, but savvy enough to leverage a weak market for maximum gain.
These opportunists emerge as a frustrating third force in a deadline landscape once divided between adders and dealers.
MLB Contenders vs. Sky-High Prices
This middle ground is causing friction across the league.
“Usually, what they ask for is unrealistic,” one executive told Olney. “They’ll ask for your four best prospects, and you say no, and they move on and keep the player.”
Opportunists aren’t fire-selling talent — they’re flipping it at inflated rates. The Tampa Bay Rays wrote the playbook last summer by moving Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes despite being just 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot. They weren’t punting. They were cashing in.
The 2025 Opportunists
This year, multiple MLB teams are poised to follow suit.
Milwaukee Brewers: With slim wild-card odds and an NL Central race still within reach, the Brewers may consider moving ace Freddy Peralta. Under contract through 2026 and earning just $8 million this year, Peralta would instantly become a top arm for any contender. But Olney notes owner Mark Attanasio is highly resistant to punting if Milwaukee is within striking distance — especially of former manager Craig Counsell’s Cubs.
Minnesota Twins: Byron Buxton is healthy, productive, and under contract for three more years at a reasonable $15.1 million AAV. The Twins could listen.
Toronto Blue Jays: After committing long-term to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the Jays might shop Daulton Varsho or Chris Bassitt to reshape the roster.
St. Louis Cardinals: This is the final year of John Mozeliak’s tenure as president of baseball operations, so the Cardinals could make some surprise moves if they stall.
These aren’t teams blowing it up. They’re exploring leverage in a seller’s market.
Not Enough Sellers, Not Enough Talent
The problem? There are too few genuine sellers, and not enough desirable talent.
The White Sox are open for business but lack appealing pieces. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) and Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) are struggling this season. The outfield market is paper-thin, and the starting pitching crop is uninspiring, with names like Erick Fedde and Sonny Gray carrying baggage.
This layer is fueling this chaotic MLB deadline with uncertainty around injuries and underperformance. With several high-profile players recovering from surgery or struggling through the first half, teams are hesitant to commit.
Contenders don’t want to gamble on damaged goods, and sellers can’t maximize value on players with diminishing returns. This issue only reinforces the leverage of opportunists, whose healthy, controllable talent becomes even more attractive — and expensive — by comparison.
That leaves contenders stuck. There’s urgency to upgrade, but not enough inventory, and opportunists aren’t helping.
The Deadline Game of Chicken
MLB contenders want to deal. Sellers want elite prospects. Opportunists wish to both — and they might ruin everything.
Unless the market shifts dramatically, Olney’s reporting paints a deadline shaped less by action and more by frustration. Everyone’s waiting, asking, stalling — and no one’s buying or selling.
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