When the offseason began for the Philadelphia Phillies, you knew there were going to be some changes. However, just how big were the changes going to be? There were some free agents for whom it seemed like it would be a stretch that they would not be back for 2026.
In the end, the Phillies brought back some of their top free agents, while they cut ties with some others. They released Nick Castellanos after they asked him not to report to spring training earlier last month. They ended up releasing him, and he signed with the San Diego Padres.
With a new-look roster for this season and a tougher division, Philadelphia got a tough prediction from Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report for the upcoming campaign.
Philadelphia Phillies Get Bad Prediction for 2026 Season
Kelly listed five MLB teams that are expected to have a worse record in 2026, and one of those teams was the Phillies. Now, to be fair, they won 96 games in 2025, and Kelly only thinks they drop to 92. That is still a drop in wins in a division that should be much more competitive this summer.
“The ceiling of the Phillies rotation is still high with the great one-two punch of Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo. But Zack Wheeler is coming back from thoracic outlet decompression surgery, Aaron Nola had a 6.01 ERA in 2025, and top prospect Andrew Painter is being counted on to fill at least some of the void created when Ranger Suárez departed for Boston Red Sox in free agency this winter,” wrote Kelly.
Losing Suárez is going to be a bigger loss than some think. He was the workhorse at the top of the rotation that took the ball in big games. His 3.20 ERA and 4.7 WAR in 26 starts with 151 strikeouts are a lot to lose. The starting rotation does have a high ceiling, but the loss of Suárez could be felt.
Philadelphia retained Kyle Schwarber and catcher J.T. Realmuto, but they are getting older, and they signed Adolis García from the Texas Rangers. Trea Turner isn’t getting any younger, either, along with Bryce Harper.
The National League East Will Be Tougher in 2026
This might be the biggest reason for the Phillies to take a step back in 2026. The National League East Division got tougher. The New York Mets added Bo Bichette, but will that offset the losses of Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz? The Mets did acquire Freddy Peralta from the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Atlanta Braves added a handful of veterans, while the Miami Marlins traded pitchers Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers. However, they added a closer in Pete Fairbanks from the Tampa Bay Rays, while adding rising prospect Owen Caissie from the Chicago Cubs in the Cabrera deal.
“It remains to be seen whether the Mets are actually more talented than they were last season, but they probably are going to win more than the 83 games they did last year. Ditto for the Atlanta Braves, who had a disappointing 76-86 record last year. Even the Miami Marlins went 35-32 after the All-Star Break last season,” Kelly wrote.
Philadelphia is still the favorite to win the NL East, but fewer wins than they had a year ago would not be surprising. It would make for a tighter race in September than the Phillies are used to over the last couple of seasons.
Phillies Get Concerning Prediction Ahead of 2026 Season